Four New Growth Points Of The Global Economy In The Next Ten Years

The international financial crisis sweeping the globe has far-reaching implications.

Against this background, consulting management company Accenture joined hands with Oxford recently.

New growth point silver hair economy

With the decline of birth rate and the extension of life expectancy, the world is facing increasingly serious population aging problem.

According to the UN's "aging report", by the year 2050, the global population will reach a peak of 9 billion 150 million, among which the population over 60 will break through 2 billion, accounting for nearly 22% of the total population of the world, and the proportion of the population aged 65 or above will increase to 16%. When the elderly above 65 years old can only rely on 3.9 laborers aged between 15 and 64, the proportion will be 1 in 2010.

Thus, if we can not find a solution to the challenge of population aging, there will be no corresponding economic, technological and social pformation, and the following problems will be self-evident.

However, everything has two sides. Accenture research reveals the other side of the matter, that is, there are huge business opportunities behind aging.

Among them, apart from traditional business opportunities such as tourism, leisure and entertainment products and health products and services, it also includes aging education, which provides training in skills and psychological aspects for the elderly to extend their working hours. Seamless information solutions include health analysis, electronic management of patient information and diagnosis, self-help tools, mobile health services at home, etc., and life-long financial services, such as asset release products, ATM automated teller machines, and other consumer goods that meet physiological needs of the elderly.

In short, the aging industry is in the ascendant and is regarded as a promising sunrise industry in the world.

In fact, many enterprises have made many useful attempts to meet the challenge of aging.

BMW motor decided to employ a group of workers who will be quite large by 2017 to form a production line.

Although the productivity of the "old worker line" is not high at the beginning, the company has made nearly 70 minor adjustments, such as new chairs, more comfortable shoes, magnifying glasses and adjustable tables, so that the productivity of the production line can be raised to the same level as other production lines in the factory.

British financial institutions have launched two types of asset relief products to help elderly people to finance their pension: one is life-long loan, that is, the elderly borrows from the bank on the basis of housing guarantee, and the interest during the loan period can be paid in installments or at the time of liquidation. As for the time when the liquidation period begins, it is decided by the time of the death of the elderly or the time when the house is sold. The other is reverse home loan, that is, the ownership of the whole or part of the house is exchanged for cash by the elderly, but the right to live is still maintained, and the owner of the house becomes a tenant.

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The new growth point

At present, the world economic structure is undergoing profound and complicated changes.

From Asia to Latin America to Africa, the emerging market economy has seen a rapid growth and brought huge trade and investment opportunities.

Because of the relatively large population, emerging markets have become an important market for all kinds of consumer goods. At the same time, because of their huge potential for development, emerging markets have also become important targets of foreign investment.

Accenture's research concluded several economic growth points generated by strong demand in emerging markets.

One is the low cost business mode.

In emerging markets, people are looking forward to improving their living standards, but their incomes are still relatively limited.

Strong demand for inexpensive cars, telecommunications products, pharmaceuticals and consumer goods is giving birth to a low cost business model in related fields.

The two is new financial services.

This demand is particularly urgent in South Asia and Southeast Asia.

The rapid growth of the economy and the rapid growth of the middle class promote the continuous introduction of mobile finance, microfinance and small-scale insurance business.

The three is international education and training.

In some emerging markets, growth is experiencing bottlenecks in local education and training capacity, and human capital is in serious shortage, which has brought opportunities for the development of distance education and satellite campus.

Of course, enterprises should have a carefully nurtured process for emerging markets, including the formulation of diversified market development strategies in the region, the establishment of channels to share and learn from mature experiences in different markets, the selection of executives with future global strategic vision, and the development of international business models according to local conditions.

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Diversification of new growth points

Technology plays a vital role in the continuous growth of the global economy and the development and progress of human society.

High and new technology can improve productivity and promote innovation in products and services.

But high and new technology is not a fixed concept, but with a historical, developmental and dynamic nature.

Today's high-tech will become tomorrow's conventional technology and traditional technology.

So, what are the key areas of R & D in the next ten years?

　　埃森哲的研究认为，以下四大领域将成为研发重点：核心技术，主要指信息通讯(如超高速宽带、云计算)、与生命相关的科技(基因组学、生物技术)、新材料(纳米技术)、移动技术(机器人、遥感器)等方面的创新;辅助技术和服务，主要指在核心技术研发中衍生出的技术问题，如引导决策的数据和资料分析、保障网上信息传输安全的网络安全技术等;聚合技术，主要指来自不同领域的研发创新所带来的全新技术，如生物信息学(解决生物和医药领域问题的计算机应用)、生物识别技术(利用信息技术，根据人体固有的生理特性来进行个人身份的鉴定);技术辅助式商业模式，主要指技术的普及达到一定规模后，整个经济会产生一系列的创新，如移动技术的应用可以使一些产业延伸到新的或以前从未接触过的客户，企业和客户共同开发产品和服务的新模式等。

However, the achievements of high and new technology R & D are only necessary conditions for improving productivity and promoting economic growth, rather than sufficient conditions.

To this end, governments and enterprises still have a lot of work to do, such as popularizing digital technology in the labor force, constantly improving the Internet infrastructure, formulating strict and pparent regulatory standards, and building cooperation platforms among research institutions, enterprises and venture capital.

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Resource economy of new growth point

From past experience, economic modernization has largely benefited from the extensive application of fossil fuels, such as oil, natural gas, coal and even nuclear fission energy, so it is an economy built on the basis of fossil energy.

However, because the resource carrier of this economy is nearly exhausted due to the huge consumption, it is urgent to use renewable energy and raw materials instead of biochemical resources to meet the energy demand of sustainable development of human society.

Accenture's research suggests that the development and utilization of renewable energy will bring unlimited employment and growth opportunities to the world.

The resource economy will mainly be manifested in the following aspects.

The first is intelligent energy.

This is a new industrial cluster coupled with system energy efficiency technology and IT intelligent technology, which can be divided into 3 levels: power pmission and pportation links, which are conducive to energy saving and emission reduction technologies; ensure energy security, quality, reliability and economic operation control technology; new metering technology, communication technology and information sharing platform.

The two is green infrastructure, including the green capital goods and infrastructure needed for building a resource-saving and environment-friendly society, such as photovoltaic systems, wind turbines, etc.

The three is eco ethics products, which are products or services produced in responsible ways in ethics, society and environment.

It is predicted that with the Ecologicalization of consumption patterns, sales of such green products in Europe will double from 56 billion euros in 2009 to 114 billion euros in 2015.

Four is garbage, water resources and land management.

With climate warming, soil degradation and water scarcity, the importance of efficient use of water and land is increasing.

For example, by 2015, the global market for desalination alone is expected to reach US $30 billion.

Five is the eco consulting industry, including carbon management, energy planning, environmental policy analysis and other green enterprise solutions.

The six is carbon finance and investment, that is, financial activities such as direct investment and financing, carbon rights trading and bank loans, such as limiting greenhouse gas emissions and other technologies and projects, as well as auxiliary activities such as regulatory and regulatory services.

It is estimated that by 2020, the volume of carbon emissions alone will increase to 2 trillion euros.

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Promoting sustained and rapid growth of the global economy

At present, the analysis of world economic prospects by international economists is mixed.

The joy is that the world economy is moving out of the shadow of the international financial crisis and entering the track of recovery growth. The worry is that there are still many uncertain factors, such as high unemployment and high inflation, which pose a severe challenge to the prospects of world economic development.

The question often mentioned is whether the world economy can continue to achieve sustained and rapid growth in the post international financial crisis, and what can we achieve sustained and rapid economic growth?

Accenture and Oxford Institute of economics adopt macroeconomics models. After in-depth study, they believe that despite the severe impact of the international financial crisis, the global economy can continue to achieve sustained and rapid growth in the next 10 years, and has enormous potential for growth in four major areas, such as silver hair economy, resource economy, diversification technology and emerging markets.

Accenture Corporation's global chief operating officer, EU Siwei, believes that in the post international financial crisis, if we want to push the world economy to a new round of growth cycle, no matter in developed or developing economies, we need to pform the way of development and actively cultivate new economic growth points.

Generally speaking, when the economy enters the downlink stage, the demand will be greatly reduced. Those enterprises with backward production methods will be eliminated in the competition.

At the same time, the crisis or recession will promote the application of new technologies, and spawn new industries and business models, and become the starting point for the optimization and upgrading of new technology investment and economic structure.

That is to say, every big economic fluctuation will lead to a big adjustment of industrial structure and economic structure, and form a new industrial pattern, which will give birth to new economic growth points.

Similarly, the outbreak of the international financial crisis will also bring about a new round of industrial adjustment.

At present, it is generally believed that the green economy represented by new energy and low carbon technology conforms to the law of adjustment of the world industrial structure, which implies enormous market space and will become the most hopeful growth point for the future economy.

Accenture's four new growth points also agree with each other.

It can be said that the green economy will lead the new round of industrial revolution and promote sustained and rapid growth of the global economy.