The Outflow Of Emerging Markets Should Pay Attention To The Trend Of Global Capital.

"Hong Kong stocks can't rise or fall."

Investors in Hong Kong stock complained.

Judging from the recent trend, Hong Kong stocks seem to be in a predicament. The rise of A shares can not be driven, nor can US stocks rise. Why is there such a situation?

Cen Zhiyong, a securities strategist at the securities exchange, told the daily economic news that yesterday's trend was mainly driven by profit taking, because "the central economic conference has not yet heard good news, and investors have chosen to make a profit."

He believes that the Hong Kong stock market has gone down at the opening stage, mainly due to the peripheral influence. The oil price has fallen and the European and American stock markets have weakened, which has also affected the opening level of the Hong Kong stock market.

However, the fall of A shares in the afternoon is also the main reason for the drag on Hong Kong stocks.

First, Ye Shangzhi, chief strategist in Shanghai, also believes that the Hong Kong stock market is greatly influenced by the external market.

The decline in oil prices and other factors will indeed have an adverse effect on the Hong Kong stock market, while emerging markets are generally falling.

CIC Securities Research Report shows that funds are accelerating the outflow of emerging markets and the Chinese market.

EPFR data showed that last week, funds outflow $2 billion 630 million from emerging markets and outflow $2 billion 280 million from the Chinese market, the largest weekly outflow since January 2008.

Since September, the total outflow of emerging markets has been triggered by the recent strong US economic data. The market rate hike in December is expected to move further than in September.

EFPR shows a large outflow of funds or a response to this trend.

It is expected that funds will continue to flow out of emerging markets at least in the first quarter of next year, and the US dollar will remain strong, the research report said.

If

Continuous weakening and continuous outflow of funds is undoubtedly true.

It was a big blow.

However, Ye Shangzhi believes that the Hong Kong dollar remittance is still in a stable position and is not weak in general. The volatility will also exert pressure on the Hong Kong stock market, but it is not yet very high.

He thought that

The performance is greatly influenced by the peripheral market, so it is difficult to get out of the independent market.

There are many factors that will affect Hong Kong stocks in the future. The US stock market and other emerging markets will be one of them, and the impact of the A share market is bound to increase.

"We paid more attention to hang seng index before, and we should also pay attention to the index of state-owned enterprises in the future. This index has a higher correlation with A shares."

As for the performance of Chinese equity brokerage firms, ye Shangzhi is not pessimistic.

"Although there has been a wave of rise, it is not necessary to say that it has been done.

At present, the A share market is likely to be consolidated around 3000. If Hong Kong stocks continue to maintain their upturn after consolidation, I believe Hong Kong stocks will follow up, while Chinese securities companies are still worth noting.

Guang Fa securities (Hongkong) analyst Chen Huijie also said that the Hang Seng index is still lagging behind A shares in the near future.

As Hong Kong stocks are still affected by two different factors, the Hong Kong stock market is expected to continue to oscillate between 23000 and 24000 points.

"At present, the valuation of Hong Kong stocks is still relatively low, and it is possible for the Hong Kong stock to rise with A shares until the United States clears up interest rates."

For brokerage stocks, Chen Huijie said that the rise in the wave of brokerage stocks was amazing. Many of the two or three line brokerages rose more than doubled in a day.

In fact, the turnover has increased a lot in recent two years, and the amount of stock financing has also increased, and the interest income of brokerages will increase.

"The stock market after the stock market can still be optimistic, but it is recommended to be noticed after the callback."