The Main Task Of Next Year'S Economy Is Steady Growth. Monetary Policy Is More Tight And Moderate.

The central economic work conference was held in from December 9th to 11th.

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The meeting pointed out that the main objectives and tasks of 2014 are expected to be completed well, the economic operation is in a reasonable range, and the economic structural adjustment has undergone positive changes, and significant progress has been made in deepening reform and opening up.

In this regard, JP Morgan's report estimates that fiscal and monetary policies will be adjusted.

The report points out that monetary policy will respond to short-term growth pressure and low inflation environment. It is expected that interest rates will be lowered at least once in 2015, and the 2~3 deposit reserve ratio will be lowered.

The meeting pointed out that doing a good job in economic work is of great significance.

The general requirements are: comprehensively implementing the spirit of the third and fourth plenary session of the eighteen and eighteen sessions of the party and taking Deng Xiaoping theory, the important thought of "Three Represents" and Scientific Outlook on Development as the guidance, insisting on the general keynote of steady progress, insisting on improving the quality and efficiency of economic development, adapting to the new normal of economic development, and keeping the economic operation in a reasonable range.

This year, China's quarterly economic growth rate is not large. In the first three quarters, GDP grew by 7.4% compared with the previous quarter. In the three quarter, GDP increased by 7.3% compared with the same period last year, but it is still in the range of about 7.5%.

Renmin University of China recently released its annual economic report, "China's macro economy" stepping into the "new normal" period. It predicts that China's GDP growth rate will be 7.4% in 2014.

Liu Yuanchun, executive director of the national development and Strategic Research Institute of Renmin University of China, said that 2014 was the year when China's great reform and major adjustment took place. It was also a year when China's macro-economy continued to develop along the track of the new normal.

On the one hand, the macroeconomic parameters such as GDP growth continued to drop on the strength of weak external demand, domestic demand continued to fall, and real estate cyclical adjustment. On the other hand, the economic structure had undergone a larger adjustment under the effect of consumption upgrading, imbalance reversal and policy adjustment. Structural adjustment of the parameters, a slight drop in the overall price level and the steady employment situation had added a bright color to the relatively depressed macroeconomic in 2014.

The central economic work conference elaborated on the characteristics and requirements of the new economic normal period from nine aspects.

According to Zheng Xinli, former deputy director of the central policy research office, the new normal should include four important factors: moderate growth, structural optimization, efficiency improvement and improvement of people's livelihood.

Speaking at the first annual meeting of Dagong finance and economics, he said that the moderate growth rate means that China should maintain the medium to high speed growth of 7% to 8%, and some trend changes make economic and social development face many difficulties and challenges.

Next year, the five main tasks of economic work are to maintain steady economic growth in the first place.

The meeting stressed that the key is to maintain a balance between steady growth and structural adjustment, and to promote more balanced growth of the "three carriages".

We should put the focus of economic work on the way of structural adjustment and promote the synchronous development of new industrialization, informatization, urbanization and agricultural modernization, and gradually enhance the supporting role of strategic emerging industries and service industries, and strive to promote the traditional industries to the middle and high end.

The other four main tasks are: actively identifying new growth points, accelerating pformation of agricultural development mode, optimizing the spatial pattern of economic development, and strengthening protection and improvement of people's livelihood.

Next year's national "two sessions" period will announce economic growth, inflation and fiscal deficit and other core economic data targets.

The meeting stressed the need to rationally define the main expected goals of economic and social development, maintain flexibility in regional regulation, stabilize and improve macroeconomic policies, and continue to implement directional regulation and structural regulation.

Wang Tao, China's chief economist at UBS Securities, told the daily economic news reporter that due to the significant expansion of China's economic volume, it can create enough new jobs in the case of slower growth.

The downward pressure on the economy is a major difficulty facing our country at present.

In 1997~1999, China recorded a 31 consecutive month of decline in PPI, when the financial crisis swept across Asia.

In November this year, PPI fell for 33 consecutive months, once again refreshed its historical record, and the PPI decline increased to 2.7% in that month, lower than market expectations, indicating that domestic demand remained weak.

"In the face of these changes and difficulties, we need to intensify macroeconomic regulation and control.

"Zheng Xinli believes that the economic cyclical ups and downs before and after the reform and opening up, and the golden growth period of 10 years after 2000, all indicate the importance of effective macro-control policies.

The communiqu of this meeting specifically mentioned that active fiscal policy should be strengthened, and monetary policy should pay more attention to tightness and moderation.

China's financial data in October made the market disappointing, in which new Renminbi loans were significantly lower than expected, and M2 growth was at a new 7 - month low.

Wang Tao said that in order to prevent financial risks, it is necessary for the central bank to maintain sufficient liquidity and further reduce the cost of financing.

The international environment is also not optimistic. Judging by the meeting, the world economy is still in the deep adjustment period after the international financial crisis. Next year, the world economic growth rate may pick up slightly, but the overall recovery weakness situation has not changed significantly. The fluctuation of international financial market, the fluctuation of International bulk commodity prices, and the influence of non economic factors such as geopolitics have increased.

UBS believes that the central bank is expected to further lower the benchmark interest rate to lower borrowing costs, and relax lending control in the form of shadow banking credit contraction.

The central bank may continue to inject liquidity through the "directional relaxation" approach, and may also reduce the accuracy of cross-border capital outflows.

Wang Tao also believes that CPI will slow down to 1.8% in 2015, while PPI will continue to fall, despite rising food prices and some public utilities prices.

To avoid passive contraction of financial conditions, it is estimated that the central bank will cut interest rates by 40~50 basis points before the end of next year, so as to reduce actual borrowing costs and slow down the growth rate of non-performing loans.

The meeting also mentioned that we should speed up the reform of administrative examination and approval, investment, prices, monopoly industries, franchising, government procurement services, capital markets, access to private banks and foreign investment, so that the reform measures can be effectively pformed into development momentum.

At present, China is one of the countries with the highest capital price in the world. Zheng Xinli said that the reason is that monopolization leads to no competition in the private economy. We should relax the entry threshold through the financial system reform, so that qualified private capital can enter the financial field, and at the same time improve the efficiency of foreign exchange reserve, and support Chinese enterprises to go out.

He also believes that the reform of investment and financing system that can release the potential of private capital, the tax reform to release the potential of employment demand, and the reform of science and technology system that releases the potential of independent innovation are also crucial for maintaining the sustained growth of China's economy.