Returning To Neutral Monetary Policy Is Hard To Avoid.

Although yesterday the financial network red shouted the bull market again, and listed the reasons for N, but the market is still not moving. If it is not for the banking sector to catch up with the emergency, yesterday, it fell to 2800 points, the Shanghai stock index reported 2807.51 points, or 1.27% points, the Shenzhen composite index reported 9694.78 points, or 2.16%, and the gem index reported 2020.48 points, or 2.93%.

In terms of volume, the Shanghai Stock Exchange clinch a deal of 149 billion 400 million yuan, 267 billion 300 million yuan in Shenzhen stock market, and 416 billion 700 million yuan in the two cities today.

Yesterday, I expected the trend of the market to be a bit too optimistic. I think it will maintain a concussion situation. But in fact, the market collapsed yesterday. In a market of uncertain confidence, the risk of prediction is far greater than the risk of weakening. Therefore, the future trend of short and medium term is still not easy to be optimistic.

But it can not be said that there is no dawn in the market. Based on risk-free interest rates, the growth stocks of some growth rate stocks with a P / E ratio of less than 30 times have also appeared in the middle line.

The brokerage sector will benefit from Shenzhen and Hong Kong through pulse opportunities.

The reason why the stock market has plummeted is on the one hand that the valuation of the subject stock is still very high. The low valuation of the Shanghai stock index is mainly due to the weight of the bank insurance. According to China financial net, investment theory is generally used to measure the two indexes of P/E and P/B.

Up to May 1st, the P/E of Shanghai A shares was 14.29 times, P/B was 1.51 times, P/E of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 was 11.94 times, P/B was 1.4 times, P/E of small and medium board was 52.02 times, P/B was 4.22 times, gem was 68.98 times, P/B was 5.97 times.

If banks are eliminated, the average price earnings ratio (P/E) of the A share board is more than 40, which is not supported by the new normal economy. The high valuation level of small and medium sized enterprises is difficult to sustain under the background of the economic downturn and the L trend will remain for a long time in the future.

High growth is also difficult for a skilled woman to make bricks without straw, so small and medium-sized valuation is harder to maintain. Maintaining such a high valuation level is either a market confidence or a very loose currency, but confidence in the market is unlikely at all. It is that after 15 years of slump in the second half of the year, investors are still not out of the shadow of the collapse. The mentality is still not fixed, and the extreme easing of money has come to an end. The return of neutral monetary policy is inevitable.

Authorities pointed out that the five key tasks of "capacity reduction, inventory elimination, deleveraging, cost reduction and compensation" are fully implemented.

In view of the two points that lever authority points out further, trees can not grow to the sky, high leverage will inevitably bring high risks, and bad control will lead to a systemic financial crisis, resulting in negative economic growth, and even letting people save their savings.

The most dangerous thing is to pursue the best of both worlds in an unrealistic way.

After the authority's speech, management leveraged the regulation significantly strengthened. It is reported that the departments concerned are revising the "eight bottom line" prohibition rules for asset management business, which stipulates that the leverage ratio of the stock and mixed asset management schemes is more than 1 times; the leverage ratio of the stock asset management plan established for the management of the employee stock ownership plan is more than 2 times; the leverage ratio of the futures, fixed income and non-standard asset management schemes is more than 3 times; and the leverage ratio of other asset management schemes is more than 2 times.

The leverage ratio has been significantly tightened compared with the March 2015 editions.

Last year's version of the structured classification management plan only requires a multiple leverage ratio of not more than 10 times.

At the same time, structured products should not be nested to invest in other structural products magnifying leverage, and the name must contain structured or graded words. The total assets of the collection management plan shall not exceed 140% of net assets.

In addition, it also revised the regulations on the management of subsidiaries of securities investment fund management companies (hereinafter referred to as the "Regulations") and "guidelines on wind control indicators for specific management of subsidiary assets of fund management companies" (hereinafter referred to as "guidelines").

It can be seen that the core of the amendment is to reduce leverage.

This is not a good news for the stock market, especially in a weak market. Deleveraging is more likely to cause stampede.

And leverage funds are more popular in small and medium sized enterprises, so small and medium enterprises are under greater pressure to adjust, and the rate of decline is greater.

The reason why stock market stocks have higher valuations lies in the fact that there is a M & a expectation in the market, especially cross-border mergers and acquisitions, which is expected to make the company become a new breed of Phoenix. But this is also facing a certain number of variables. Although the SFC has not stopped cross-border mergers and acquisitions in four aspects, such as virtual technology, film, television and entertainment, the audit has become more and more stringent, and consensus has been reached.

And other investment opportunities are getting smaller and smaller, and shell resources stocks are experiencing tremendous downward pressure.

This will also lead to a further decline in the market earning effect and more enthusiasm for the market.

However, there is no obvious trend of the 28 differentiation trend of the theme dancing and dancing. There are many reasons. One is that the capital market is not very abundant, so it is difficult to boost the super large cap stocks such as bank insurance and securities companies.

Individual stocks, although the price earnings ratio is very low, but to say that the market is strong enough, it is still very difficult. One is that although institutions are gathered in banks, but the so-called three monks do not have water to eat, in the overall market is in a weak position, no one has the courage to dare to operate radically, leading a wave of market, because the strength of a single institution can not lead the trend of banks, and at present there is no strong factor to form a resultant force. So you see me, I see you, no one dare move, for fear that he will become a bearer.

Secondly, the bad loans of banks still face no turning point, and the current bad loan data can not really reflect the problem of bank operation. The famous economist and chief economist of Agricultural Bank of China told Mr. Song Zuo on May 17th the "2016 City View forum Beijing line".

All the bad loans of our commercial banking system have exceeded 2% in the first quarter of this year, but I can tell you that 2% is a big underestimation of the bad loans of banks.

Many of them have temporarily covered up bad loans by adjusting inflation and raising interest rates through so-called restructuring.

The total number of liabilities of the 86 iron and steel enterprises is 3 trillion and 300 billion. Most of them are bank loans. Many iron and steel enterprises are hundreds of billions or even hundreds of billions of billions of billions of dollars.

The debt to equity swap that the market hopes for is not a bank savior in his eyes. He is very clear about what debt to equity swap is against. I say a company, an enterprise, when he borrows money, he can not repay his capital and interest on time, and now the bank turns to become his shareholder.

Do you play this trick?

Three is for banks and other heavyweights, the national team shareholding is also a problem. Although the management has reiterated that it will not be launched arbitrarily, there are many data in the market. There are also media queries that the national team's high throwing and low sucking operation adjustment index is based on the huge shareholding of the national team and the huge impact on the market. No one can contend with it, so there is a certain wind vane meaning. As long as the heavyweight changes, everyone will throw away the stock and escape the battle. For the national team, it is now necessary to further clarify how to handle the shareholding, so that the market can rest assured and let the organization rest assured so as not to become an opponent in the market.

Judging from yesterday's market, bancassurance is stronger than the market, but I feel that it is not a market behavior, but a mysterious fund of ghosts and ghosts. It is precisely because of the mysterious fund manipulation method that it is difficult to predict and predict that there will be no shadow. Therefore, it is often isolated and difficult to get market response. Based on the huge system, the mysterious capital can only be isolated and difficult to sustain.