Consensus And Divergence: Decoding The Half Year Strategy Of 9 Public Funds

At the end of the first half of 2021, fund companies began to release investment strategies for the second half of 2021.

According to the incomplete statistics of the 21st century economic report, as of July 8, the first batch of nine public fund companies have released their strategies and allocation reports for the second half or third quarter of 2021. The list includes Boshi, Huaxia, Jiashi, Tianhong, Cathay Pacific, Wanjia, Penghua, Ping'an, Guohai Franklin and other fund companies.

In addition, a large number of fund companies have indicated that the fund strategy report in the second half of 2021 will be released in mid late July 2021.

Overall, in the first half of 2021, fund companies summarized the ups and downs of A-share market, and the impact of style change on the fund.

Looking forward to the second half of 2021, most fund companies believe that there will be volatility next, but there are structural opportunities.

It is worth mentioning that among the first nine fund companies that released the strategy report for the second half of 2021, the fund companies in the second half of 2021 are optimistic about new energy / new energy vehicles, and a large number of fund companies are optimistic about semiconductor, pharmaceutical, photovoltaic and cycle stocks.

However, some fund companies have made it clear that they are not optimistic about group stocks, cycle stocks, real estate, transportation, leisure services, etc., or think that they are not cost-effective at present.

Consensus on predicting "shock"

Looking back on the first half of the year, the Shanghai index rose 3.4%, the Shenzhen Composite Index rose 4.78%, the Chuang index rose 17.22%, and the Kechuang 50 index rose 14.01%.

Although the overall market looks good, it is a roller coaster with twists and turns.

Wanjia Fund believes that in the first half of this year, liquidity expectation has become the core variable that repeatedly disturbs the market. However, the two large-scale rebounds this year (before the Spring Festival and from March to the present) are both related to the marginal improvement of liquidity. From the perspective of market structure, taking the Spring Festival as the dividing line, the second-line varieties gradually recover faster after the Spring Festival due to the relatively high matching between profit and valuation.

Cathay Pacific Fund pointed out that since the beginning of the year, steel, comprehensive, chemical, coal, nonferrous metals, electric power equipment and banks have led the growth.

The latest wave of rebound is the rebound represented by gem since May. From the market performance point of view, growth stocks are mainly up, and the value and cycle are relatively weak.

Overall, the market style began to return to small and medium-sized stocks in the second quarter.

It is worth mentioning that the equity fund increased its position in June. Since June, the position of equity funds has increased, and is now in the 78% sub position since 2010; At the same time, the position of hybrid funds rose, and the current position is 80% since 2010.

Penghua Fund pointed out that reviewing the performance of major categories of assets from May to June, equity was dominant as a whole, style tended to grow, and most style valuations were in a reasonable range.

Standing in the middle of 2021 and looking forward to the second half of 2021, half of the fund companies that have released their strategic views in the second half of 2021 clearly predict the "shock" of the A-share market in the second half of 2021. Although the word "shock" is not directly mentioned in the report, the other half also uses neutral terms such as "no callback risk" and "structural opportunity".

Among them, Huaxia, Tianhong, Boshi, Ping An, Wanjia fund, etc. forecast the "shock" of A-share market in the second half of the year.

The conclusion of Huaxia Fund's research and judgment on the general trend is that the second half of the year is still volatile and remains optimistic in the short term and maintains a high position. At present, the market lacks timing significance.

Ping An Fund said that the current liquidity has been very loose, and there is not much room for further easing. In the second half of the year, the market rate remained volatile. With the slow down of funds entering the market, the stock market fund side has turned into a stock game, and the high performance growth rate and partial growth style are expected to win.

Guohai Franklin fund judgment, the third quarter of the market no significant callback risk.

However, Cathay Pacific Fund pointed out that the market may adjust to a certain extent in the third quarter. In the fourth quarter, with the further clarification of the inflation peak, the stabilization of social financing growth rate, and the continued high roe of a shares, the market may regain its upward trend.

Wanjia Fund believes that in terms of corporate profitability, the smooth decline of leading indicators such as social finance and credit indicates that corporate earnings are still resilient in the third quarter, the market is systematically downward, inflation lags behind the roe inflection point, and it is expected that there will still be structural opportunities in the third quarter.

Harvest Fund did not directly comment on the general trend of a shares in the second half of the year, but pointed out that "in 2021, the struggle between enterprise profit expansion and valuation contraction is expected to continue to increase, and the marginal convergence of liquidity will be superimposed, and the overall market return may converge, but there are abundant structural opportunities. From a stylistic point of view, cyclical is expected to be better than aperiodic. " Harvest Fund said.

There are significant differences in institutions

From the perspective of investment strategy in the second half of 2021, among the first batch of 9 fund companies that released the strategy report, except one did not mention the investment industry or sector that is optimistic about, the other eight clearly expressed their positive views on new energy / new energy vehicles in the second half of the year, with very consistent views.

In addition, seven funds are optimistic about cycle stocks in the second half of the year, but one fund clearly indicates that they are not optimistic about cycle stocks; There are 6 fund companies optimistic about the second half of the field are: semiconductor, pharmaceutical, photovoltaic, cycle stocks; Five fund companies are optimistic about the military industry in the second half of the year.

Overall, fund companies generally optimistic about the style of small and medium-sized enterprises in the second half of the year.

Guohai Franklin fund in the investment strategy, light index, heavy structure, mining high profit growth and valuation matching high plate and individual stocks.

Cathay Pacific Fund said that the size of the market style, the company's second half is still dominated by small and medium-sized.

On the industry allocation level, Cathay Pacific Fund pointed out that the small and medium-sized peg stock selection is expected to continue to contribute to excess earnings.

Wanjia fund's third quarter investment strategy suggests that the industries that can be directly allocated are: coal, steel and nonferrous metals (copper / aluminum); The industries to be bought after callback include nonferrous metals (lithium / cobalt, etc.), power equipment and new energy, medicine, electronics and computers; The industries with long-term value allocation include real estate, food and beverage, and consumer service.

In terms of track configuration, Wanjia fund focuses on the sustainable boom or turning point track, Hongmeng ecological middleware, optics in smart cars, and RCS of 5g application.

Ping An Fund believes that the market probability rate remains volatile in the second half of the year. With the slow down of capital entering the market, the stock market will turn into a stock game, and the high performance growth rate and partial growth style are expected to win; In terms of strategy, economic recovery and emerging growth are still the most determined main lines, and procyclical and financial sectors can also be concerned; The subdivision level needs to select the stocks with good performance and reasonable valuation. Ping An fund is optimistic about new energy vehicles, photovoltaic, technology, consumption and other industries in the second half of the year.

Cathay Pacific Fund is most optimistic about three industries: power equipment, medicine and banking; The least optimistic about the three industries: real estate, transportation and leisure services.

Huaxia Fund is optimistic about the cycle style and thinks that the price persistence is good, and the oil price potential is large. In addition, we are optimistic about the growth style. At present, the recommended order of growth industries is: military industry, new energy vehicles, financial it, semiconductor, tax-free, photovoltaic.

Jiashi fund industry sector focuses on three major directions: first, domestic recovery clues, optional consumption, advanced manufacturing, big finance; Second, foreign demand recovery clues, nonferrous metals, chemical industry, as well as machinery, household appliances, light industry; The third is high-quality, overvalued and long-term assets, electric vehicles, military industry chain, and liquor / medicine with good growth in consumption field.

Penghua Fund is optimistic about Pro cyclical (such as lithium, coal, chemicals), industries with strong external demand in the export chain (machinery, textile and clothing, automobile), high-end manufacturing industry (such as semiconductor, photovoltaic, military industry), and innovation and technology growth (such as new energy, intelligent automobile, Internet of things and information security) driven by policies and performance.

Boshi fund is optimistic about the new energy vehicles / semiconductors / cro / tax-free plate which is less affected by macro-economy and is expected to expand against the trend in profitability in the third quarter. It has a comparative advantage and has valuation pressure in the short term, but the fundamentals are still waiting for the opportunity to allocate to the good liquor.

Some fund companies in the second half of the investment strategy, mentioned the need to be cautious of the industry sector.

For example, Boshi fund clearly states, "reduce pure cycle configuration.".

But on the contrary, other fund companies generally said that they were optimistic about "cyclical stocks" in the second half of the year, including banks, petrochemicals, coal, steel and so on.

And for the early fund group stocks, many fund companies hold a cautious attitude.

Guohai Franklin fund said that in the third quarter, for some "green" assets with high valuation and slow growth of performance, the process of valuation digestion is not completed, and it needs to wait patiently.

Boshi Fund believes that the short-term constraint of A-share lies in the reappearance of Micro Trading contradictions of group stocks, and it is advisable to strike while withdrawing.

"At present, the lack of cost performance ratio in local transactions of group stocks is more prominent. For example, in the photovoltaic / new energy vehicles / liquor sector, the proportion of strong stocks above MA60 and the valuation quantile are more than 80%, which shows that these sectors not only have the problem of low transaction cost performance, but also have the problem of insufficient odds ratio. In addition, although semiconductors and consumer electronics do not have the problem of insufficient odds, they have entered the low cost performance trading area. " Boshi Fund said.