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Guo Xinlin: Beware Of The Impact Of The Dollar Rebound On US Stocks.

2010/10/11 9:40:00 37

　　 US stock The closing gains on Friday mainly benefited from better performance from Alcoa and the expectation of the 2 quantitative easing policy of the Federal Reserve. The US stock market is the first time to return to the 11000 point. It was the first time in early May (see picture). The market is so strong that it is not that the fundamentals of the US economy have improved. On the contrary, the turnover of non-agricultural jobs is far worse than that expected by the market. The first is mainly because of the massive reduction of jobs by the government due to the deficit, and the increase of private sector positions is also less than that of the pre period. The stock market is good, but the employment is still so poor. It is not helpful to the election of the current US government. Instead, more voices begin to question the effectiveness of the so-called 2 quantitative easing.

The market believes that the US Federal Reserve will buy another $500 billion of US Treasury bonds in the future, and will adopt flexible measures to adopt a more quantitative easing policy in response to economic changes. As we have mentioned before, can the effectiveness of this 2 volume increase be as large as we can imagine? If the first width can only make the investment market better, but not the actual benefit of the real economy, then what is the necessity of carrying out the 2 volume? How large should it be? And some analysts believe that if the second volume width does not have 60 thousand to 7 trillion US dollars, it is impossible to stimulate the economy. Therefore, at present, the 500 billion stimulus plan expected by the market, at best, can only stimulate the stock market and help the real economy very little.

Another problem is that although the United States still dominates the world economy, its recovery needs the continued purchase of its national debt by emerging countries. This endless open-ended quantitative easing plan will also lead these countries to adopt a policy of foreign exchange diversification so as not to derogate from the dollar assets on hand, and governments need to bear enormous political pressure from their country. Allowing the US dollar exchange rate to fall freely, the so-called 2 quantitative easing policy of the US government seems to be able to sing itself. The original creditors are also likely to vote with their feet. Therefore, the US government occasionally makes the US dollar debt somewhat attractive, so be careful. Rebound in US dollar exchange rate The impact.

We can see from the US 10 year bond yields, US dollar index and fear index three charts that the liquidity and confidence of the market have reached a high level at present, and there are some major indicators that need to be reversed at any time. Once the reversal is made, the US stocks need to make a big adjustment, and investors need to be highly vigilant in the next one or two weeks. {page_break}

This week's important economic data is relatively small, mainly on Thursday's international trade data and PPI and Friday's CPI and retail data. Among them, the international trade data may become the pretext of forcing RMB appreciation, and the two inflation data of CPI and PPI should not be high. Otherwise, how does the Federal Reserve implement the 2 Volume policy?

All in all, the market has begun to lose consciousness, and the bubble market will not end like this, but the magnitude of the fluctuation should not be underestimated.

While China's low carbon stocks listed in the US may be on the rise, the Goldman Sachs's solar energy rating has been rated as "buying", but Oppenheimer has also lowered the rating or target price of four Chinese solar listed companies. And the stock price performance of the new energy listed at low price can not be described as strong. It seems that the entire Chinese new energy sector needs to be consolidated.