The Death Of Cotton Price: The Imbalance Between Supply And Demand Is Mainly Due To Speculation And Speculation.

15 days, Zheng cotton The CF1101 contract fell sharply, hitting a new high of 25155 yuan / ton in recent years, closing up 1.17%, closing at 24700 yuan / ton.

Over the past two months, cotton has become a commodity futures market. Bellwether 。

Zheng cotton's CF1101 contract was launched in August, and then it went all the way. In August 16th, Zheng cotton CF1101 contract closed at 17155 yuan / ton. In September 3rd, it exceeded 18000 yuan / ton, broke through 20000 yuan / ton in September 20th, and broke through 25000 yuan / ton in October 15th, creating a new high of 25155 yuan / ton in recent years.

In just two months, Zheng cotton prices rose by about 8000 yuan / ton, or 46.63%.

In the first 8 months of this year, the price of Zheng cotton has been in the range of 15300 yuan to 17265 yuan / ton.

In the international market, since July this year, the US cotton futures price has climbed nearly 65%.

Strong support for spot prices futures prices Rise.

Akesu, Xinjiang, the first cotton producing area in China. The city's cotton production accounts for more than 12% of the whole country, and Sha Ya county is the first cotton producing county in China, with more than 1 million mu of cotton planted. It is reported that in Sha Ya county, the purchase price of Tian tou cotton has risen from 8.8 yuan / kg in late August to 12.7 yuan / kg in October 11th, or 36.4%.

According to zhuochuang information, before the national day, the average price of the cotton market was 5.0-5.1 yuan / Jin, and cotton prices rose all the way after the National Day holiday cotton prices were slightly adjusted in October 8th. As of October 12th, the cotton price was as high as 5.8-6.0 yuan / Jin, and the highest price in Xinjiang was 12.2 yuan / kg.

The imbalance between supply and demand is clearly a major factor in price rise.

"Rising is determined by supply and demand." The development of new agriculture for planting enterprises (600359) Zhang Chunjiang told China economic times telephone interview.

"The sharp rise in cotton prices is still fundamental. But it does not exclude the factors of speculation. " Du Min, director of the rural development research center of the Ministry of agriculture of the Ministry of agriculture, said in a telephone interview with the China economic times, "in particular, there is a gap in supply. According to the latest cotton demand and production volume released by the National Bureau of statistics, the current demand for cotton is at least about 10000000 tons, while the output is only 6 million 400 thousand tons (the data of various agencies and chambers of commerce are 7 million tons). No matter what figure is taken, cotton demand gap is between 3 million and 3 million 600 thousand tons."

Due to the low cotton prices in 2008 and other reasons, the planting area has been reduced, and disasters and weather factors have led to the reduction of cotton production in China. The cotton association of China has monitored that as of the end of September, the total output of cotton is estimated to be 6 million 640 thousand tons, and the same caliber will be reduced by 2.3%. According to survey data from the Ministry of agriculture and Statistics Bureau, the cotton production is reduced by about 4% compared with the caliber.

"On the one hand, the situation of production reduction is obvious; on the other hand, the Fed's price push has lowered the stock of cotton, resulting in tight global supply and demand. This has led to investor concerns and the enthusiasm of foreign institutions for speculation. In the middle of Beijing, Xu Jing accepted the China economic times telephone interview.

In the international market, the United States Department of Agriculture released the May 2010 world cotton market analysis report, it is estimated that in 2010/11, world cotton consumption will exceed fifth consecutive years, which is the first time in 50 years. Inventory reduction has reduced the ratio of inventory to consumption to the lowest level in 16 years.

In June 1, 2010, the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) announced the forecast of global cotton production and marketing. It is predicted that China will import 2 million 225 thousand tons in 2009/10, and 7 million 88 thousand tons in 2010/11 and 2 million 699 thousand tons in imports.

As the second largest cotton producing country in the world, India announced that the export of cotton would be stopped, making the world's cotton supply even more unoptimistic.

China's cotton stocks continue to decline despite the fact that imports are still hard to fill. It is reported that the end of 2009 inventory in China was 2 million 380 thousand tons, ending inventory consumption was 22.8%, down 9.9% from the same period last year, the lowest level in 20 years.

Xu Jing said, "the Federal Reserve has brought about sustained price growth. In August, China passed the national dumping and storage, and the price of the national dumping and storage rose. The purchase price of seed cotton was higher than that of previous years. All these factors support the rise of cotton prices.

Thus, in the past week, domestic cotton prices continued to rise, and the purchasing price of large textile mills in Asia was most seriously raised. Zhuo Chuang information predicts that cotton prices will continue to grow steadily in a short time, and the resistance will remain.

Speculative speculation also accounts for a large proportion.

China Cotton Association said that although this wave of ups and down factors such as supply and demand fundamentals, but not enough to support cotton prices so skyrocketing, speculative speculation also accounted for a large proportion.

There are still a lot of hype. Feng Mengxiao, chief information officer of China cotton storage information center, told China economic times telephone interview that "all aspects of the situation are under observation, research and verification, and it is not easy to say."

There are media reports: in August this year, a futures research group of more than 30 people had been visited in Akesu, Xinjiang, and went to the field to understand the production of cotton. Those who are said to be large futures traders in Zhejiang confirm that the first target price of cotton this year is 20 thousand yuan / ton. Jokes in the ears of the local cotton merchants immediately became reality, and cotton began to enter the super bull market at the end of August. In August 26th, in the position of Zheng cotton holdings, Zhejiang earth futures held 12563 hands and many orders, ranking first in many positions. In addition, new lake futures, Zhejiang Yongan futures, Zhejiang merchants futures and Zhejiang Xinhua ranked 9 - 20. In September 30th, Zhejiang's holdings increased by more than one to 19267. Yongan, Zhejiang, held 18211 hands and more orders. New lake futures held 15199 hands and more orders, ranking the top three. In October 15th, Changjiang futures became the first place with more than 20313 hands, and the Zhejiang land, which had been making more cotton, disappeared in the previous 20. It shows that it has chosen to make profits. Zhejiang Yongan and Xin Hu futures are listed in 17817 hands, multiple units and 16735 hands and two or three units. Rough statistics, Zhejiang earth futures customers earned 700 million yuan in 2 months.

Zheng cotton's position and volume chart shows that since the end of 8, Zheng cotton has risen sharply and its trading has been particularly active. In August 23rd, the turnover of Zheng cotton index was only 93550 hands. After the 100 thousand hand expansion in August 24th, Zheng cotton city was favored by more and more people. By October 12th, the turnover of zhengmian exceeded 2 million hands and soared to 262 or more. Accordingly, Xu Jing believes that there is a large part of the capital in recent years. Cotton prices here also rose nearly 7000 points, or more than 40%.

Since August, the state has been throwing away 1 million tons of cotton and can not restrain the rise of cotton prices. Investors in cotton city are active, which provides an effective kinetic energy for the rise of cotton prices. Xu Jing said, "there are speculative elements in the futures market. Although the state has cracked down on the vicious speculation in the market, the market outlook is still in an upward path, and will remain high and volatile in the short term."

"In 2008, there were hot money on the market. Why not cotton? Because of the theme this time. The whole farm product (000061) is rising, so the rise of cotton is normal. Du min asked.