The Words Of One Family: The New Market Is New, The New Is High, And Zheng Cotton Keeps Up With The Wind.

Yesterday ICE cotton electronic disk trading, set a record high of 161.9 cents / pound.

Careful observation, this round of Zheng cotton uplink has several characteristics, and is also concerned about the next market development, which needs close attention. First, after hitting 24000 yuan at the end of November last year, it has experienced a long time of passive and rising pattern. But since last Friday, Zheng cotton has gone through the 30 thousand integer gate pressure, and second, the current price has gone up, and the market position has been maintained at about 400 thousand hands.

So, what is the main reason behind the historical price of this round of price approaching the early stage? I think it mainly focuses on the psychological role of the ICE cotton market in the external market, which leads to continuous capital growth.

Therefore, the trend of future market needs to pay attention to the trend of cotton production in the outer market, the changes in the buying and selling of domestic stock market, the trend of cotton futures, the whole domestic macro and industrial policies, and the evolution of the surrounding commodity market atmosphere.

In terms of external cotton production, third times a breakthrough of 159 cents / pound, the technical graphics trend is perfect.

From a fundamental point of view, the US cotton sale is ahead of schedule this year, and the volume of contract signing next year is very active. The new cotton planting area in the new year may be faced with an enlarged area of abandoned cultivation. The end of the world will consume a lot of stock and face new demand in the future.

In addition, the market is generally expected to take the bull market in 2011. From a comprehensive perspective, it seems that any trend of cotton in the late ICE period is reasonable, which is the most need to be vigilant.

At the same time, we still need to pay attention to the actual purchase and sale of China's cotton spot and the changes of domestic macro and industry policies.

Since the beginning of mid 11, the domestic sales and marketing pattern has been deserted. Over the past 2 months, the market has not changed much.

But some small changes need to be vigilant, including the current price of yarn has been raised, finished goods inventory began to gradually sell, and small and medium-sized textile enterprises after 2 months or so, after buying and selling temporary rest, "time for space", need to restart passive raw material procurement after the festival.

However, from the point of view of spot supply, this year's high purchase of cotton has not entered the circulation consumption link, and China's cotton import volume exceeded 460 thousand tons in December last year. It is estimated that in the next 1-3 months, the average monthly port volume is 300 thousand tons, and the contradiction between supply and consumption is objective.

The price of spot cotton has been rising steadily for a while, but the price of futures cotton has risen sharply. Will the new policy changes to cotton futures be triggered?

Finally, on the face of capital, can soft goods represented by rubber and cotton become the star of the commodity market in 2011? I believe that it faces greater competition pressure with oil, copper and sugar.

In the recent rise of Zheng cotton, there has been no significant increase in positions.

In addition, we missed the last round of selling the hedging opportunities, and in advance of the current round of price rising, we had to sell the value and lock in profits in advance. The pressure brought to the disk also needs attention.

To sum up, we can see that the domestic cotton rising trend driven by the external market is still increasing impulse, but its continued high demand needs to be followed up by the domestic stock market, otherwise it will eventually become a passive water.