The Cumulative Effect Of The Reserve Increase Showed &Nbsp; The Capital Side Suddenly Tightened Up And Interest Rates Rose.

Yesterday was the fourth time this year turned in. deposit On the day of the reserve fund, about 360 billion yuan of funds were paid for the "flood peak" yesterday. Bank The market funds are suddenly tense. capital Prices surged across the board, especially the overnight repo weighted average interest rate, which jumped by 180 basis points yesterday. According to the analysis of the industry, the cumulative effect of the increase in the deposit reserve ratio has gradually appeared. It does not exclude the possibility that the reserve requirement rate will continue to rise in the two quarter.

No more money, no more days.

Compared with the loose capital system of the banking system in March of this year, the tension of funds yesterday exceeded the expectations of some market participants. Some traders pointed out that as the big banks stopped financing early in the morning, the funds in early trading began to become tense. Securities companies and funds began to take the place of big banks and acted as the main force in the financing. They thought that the tension would ease up in the afternoon, but unexpectedly, they became more and more intense.

For the reason of this "liquidity reversal", the industry analyzed that the accumulation of the deposit rate, the accumulation of pumping effect, the cash provision of the "May 1" holiday and the three factors near the end of the month interfered with the price of the fund yesterday. As a matter of fact, although the maturity rate of the open market in April was as high as 911 billion, as of yesterday, the central bank issued a central bank and a repurchase 591 billion in April. If this time the freezing fund was raised by about 360 billion, in fact, it had already locked the net back in advance in April.

Beware of "liquidity reversal"

"The pre tightening effect has already reached the critical point, and we should be alert to liquidity reversals in the future." Chai Shumao, an analyst with China Merchants Securities, pointed out that it is estimated that the overrun rate of financial institutions is between 1.2-1.4.

After this increase, the turnover rate of some large financial institutions has dropped to a very low level. Qilu bank financial market department Wang Huane pointed out that the mainstream agencies predict the two quarter will still raise the deposit reserve ratio. If the reserve ratio is raised again in 5 and June, the market funds will be tightened in the two quarter.

Since the beginning of this year, the central bank has raised the deposit reserve ratio every month, and in April this year it was "three rates moving together". Since central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan issued the statement that "there is no absolute ceiling on China's deposit reserve ratio", the market has increased the anticipation of the deposit reserve ratio in the future. Micro-blog, deputy director of the Financial Research Institute of the development research center of the State Council, said that from the two quarter, the central bank should continue to use the central bank ticket and raise the reserve ratio to carry out conventional hedging. The rise of price pressures in March means that the once more moderate "three rate" tightening policy portfolio will reappear, and prices will fluctuate on the 5% to the three quarter.

It is worth mentioning that the successful bid price of the central treasury cash management business tendering yesterday also exceeded expectations. Although the central bank yesterday injected 30 billion yuan of liquidity into the inter-bank market through treasury cash tendering, it is still difficult to understand the thirst for funds and the winning rate is only 5.70%, lower than the level of the first two phases of this year. Due to the 9 month period, there is a cross year factor. Most agencies predict that interest rates will be higher than the previous period before bidding. Wang Huane pointed out that the final announcement of the winning rate was unexpected, or the government intended to guide the price to a reasonable level.