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Face Three Support Cotton Price Jedi Counterattack

2011/5/16 14:56:00 47

Cotton prices have come to a profound adjustment since reaching a record high in mid February.

The main CF1109 contract slipped from nearly 35000 to 24000, or more than 30%.

The sharp decline has made the fundamentals negative factors fully released, and has also played an important stabilizing and rebound signal on the technical side.

First, since mid February,

Cotton price

In a good downstream channel.

Because some supporting factors still exist on cotton fundamentals, they will be backed up by strong support at the lower price of each downlink.

As shown in the figure, when the first contact of the 25 date price occurred in February, a middle line was collected. In March 16th, when the second collision occurred, a large line was received, and in May 6th, when it was dropped down to the lower edge, a Changyang was also collected.

It can be seen that the defensive force is strong enough for the long line, and the support of the lower side of the downstream channel is very strong.

Secondly, the current price down to 24000 of the region, just hit last November.

adjustment

Near the low 24180.

After 5 months, the market tested this bit of support again, and there is a demand for stabilization and rebound.

Judging from the disk, from the last few days since Friday, the price of each time near to 24200, it was instantly pulled up, and quickly separated from this area, so we can see that the long defensive energy embedded here is very strong.

Again, this price is also facing the strong support of the annual line.

From April 2009,

Cotton price

From the haze of the financial crisis, we have been running on the annual line for more than two years, and now we are going to explore the annual line again.

Through disk observation, we can see that from May 6th to 10, 3 trading days, the positions of CF1109 contracts increased from 390 thousand to 480 thousand, and three consecutive lines were pulled out.

Especially in May 10th, the highest trading volume in the market was close to 120 thousand hands, and the turnover reached 3 million 200 thousand.

Finally, from the basic point of view, the two session of the Canton Fair ended, and textile exports grew steadily.

Despite facing multiple pressures such as rising exchange rates and rising raw materials, China's foreign trade still handed out a beautiful answer: China's trade growth rate reached 29.5% in the first quarter, of which exports increased by 26.5%.

The exuberant export situation has taken a reassurance for cotton futures.

During the Canton Fair, the market was once widely rumored that the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar would be 10% higher than that of the US dollar. The export rebate rate of textile and clothing involving more than 100 tariff codes may be 5% down.

The tax rebate cut 5 points, which means that textile and garment export tax rebates will be reduced by about 65 billion yuan, equivalent to 1/3 of the total textile industry profits.

This is an important reason why the short period of time has been overwhelming.

But with the closing of the Canton Fair and the speech of the Ministry of Commerce on stabilizing the foreign trade policy, such rumors also vanished, and the short term forces of cotton lost an important support.

To sum up, although the cotton price is still facing the basic situation of high inventory of cotton yarn and sluggish downstream demand, the continuous sharp drop has fully released this profit.

Now the price goes to the 24000 pass, facing the three support of the long time and space dimension with long technology, the strong momentum of multi head defense and the rebound of the expected price.