Cow Knife: What Should We Do When China'S House Price Falls On A Soft Landing?

Cow knife: what should we do when China's house price falls on a soft landing?

Bull's note: This is a section of "the poor inflation and the rich deflation", which should be invited by the netizens.

The following three points suggest that the government can use it for reference.

The burst of high housing bubble has been on the verge of fire.

The trend of this bubble burst is also clear.

Many people of insight have made a lot of efforts to try to resolve the bubble. However, they have been strongly opposed by the group enjoying huge profits in the high housing prices, resulting in the three years of macro regulation and control which have been carried out since 2005.

And then overnight, the policy faces 180 big turns, amplifying the property bubble and sending the Chinese economy to the crazy end of collapse.

There is no way out now.

Many people are pondering whether the government will protect the interests of the people who have housing. I think the government should do so, but the question is how the government can protect the interests of the people in the house. What else can the government do to protect the interests of the people in the house? Do you want to send money? Zimbabwe's warning is still in sight.

Such an outcome will be a great scorn for the phenomenon of frequent housing prices.

When developers discuss this problem, many people turn to the inflection point again.

In fact, what is coming now is not a turning point. It is totally different from the market environment facing the "927" mortgage loan policy after 2007. It is not a house price callback falling into a downward channel. When it reaches a certain level, it reaches the level of purchasing power allowed by the market, and the volume will be enlarged.

Now housing prices are not falling, and once house prices fall, that is the collapse of the tsunami.

We do not want to see such a situation. Chinese society can not afford the consequences of a bubble burst.

What do we do? What other ways can we achieve the rational return of this irrational rise in house prices to facilitate the soft landing of China's economy? There are two messages published by $2 websites: one is that the Federal Reserve has quietly withdrawn funds, and the whole money supply has surged at 187% in the last two quarters, and the growth rate has dropped sharply after the 4~8 seasonally adjusted adjustment in 2009, and the annual interest rate has dropped to 8%.

Another example is that in September 2008, currency reserves expanded from $10 billion to nearly l trillion US dollars. From mid May, the reserves began to adjust at a rate of 43% to about 800 billion dollars after adjustment.

From this, let us look at the two criteria of money supply: M2 and MZM (the Liquidity Fund of the Federal Reserve Bank) has begun to shrink.

M26 began to shrink at the rate of 13% in the middle of June, while MZM decreased by 2% compared with the same period last year.

Another is Obama's first visit to China in November, or he continues to lobby China to buy US debt.

The Obama administration announced that the total budget deficit in the next 10 years is expected to be US $9 trillion, much more than the last expected figure, which is only about US $7 trillion and 100 billion.

At the same time, the government may also announce that the budget deficit estimate for 2009 will be reduced to $1 trillion and 580 billion, which is less than US $262 billion from the previous estimate. This is because the government actually has less than expected funds to rescue the financial industry.

Against this background, Obama especially needs the support of China's largest creditor.

The two news tells us that the United States has begun to collect money to release its national debt.

China can not afford to buy a large number of US Treasury bonds, because if China does not buy US Treasury bonds, the US dollar will begin to depreciate against the RMB. China's huge foreign exchange reserves will be like waste paper. Our entry into WT0 is all about working for the US dollar.

If we meet the demands of the Americans, it will be painful for the Chinese people to suffer from inflation.

The US will continue its low inflation and high welfare economic growth mode and throw high inflation into China.

This is the external reason why housing prices can not be reduced in the short term.

The internal reason is that the powerful people believe that city dwellers have a certain purchasing power, so they create various kinds of lies to create a good atmosphere for high housing prices, and only need to take the last batch of purchasing power out.

When inflation really came, most of the Chinese urban residents had lost any ability to resist inflation risk. Many people were living under high debts and were forced to give up their houses.

It's childish and unrealistic to expect the government to protect your house at this time.

But this does not affect us to make a few suggestions, because it is not a tiger, but a dance with wolves.

First, levy property tax as soon as possible.

For ordinary urban residents, the first ordinary residential housing is exempt from levying, second sets of improved housing are properly levied, and a high holding tax on three or more residential units is used to increase the supply of the market and reduce the vacancy and waste of Chinese social wealth in real estate.

The land department should make every effort to clean up the land hoarded by developers, replan, set a timetable for pushing the market, and reclaim all the residential land that has not been developed for more than two years, and bring it back to the market again.

The two is to try to control the appreciation of the renminbi.

When the United States collected currency from the national debt since 2008, the value of the RMB depreciated by about 13%. Then, when the United States will begin to collect the national debt in 2010, it will also maintain the appreciation of the renminbi at this level.

Controlling the exchange rate of the renminbi is also a way to safeguard the value of China's local real estate, and achieve the rational return of real estate value as far as possible, rather than a sharp fall overnight.

Three, in the ten cities with the biggest price increase in 2009, a large scale of ordinary housing with high quality and low price has been launched in an all-round way, so that more ordinary residents will be able to endure the exploitation of the high housing price once they have weakened their purchasing power.

Once the risk is coming, people who buy more than ten times the actual purchasing power of ordinary urban residents are the first victims of the housing bubble burst.

This group of people did not enjoy the prosperity of the economy, but it was unfair to let them suffer first.