Analysis Of Domestic Cotton Prices Are Weak Shocks

Weak shocks of cotton prices

At ICE

With the rebound in stability and the sharp rise in domestic and foreign agricultural products, the market weakness of Zheng cotton has rebounded recently. The main contract 1301 has been rebounded to close to 1000 yuan / ton from 18635 yuan / ton low point, but the turnover and position remain low.

We believe that Zheng cotton market will maintain a weak oscillation pattern, with a heavy pressure of 20000 yuan / ton, but 19000 yuan / ton supporting is obvious.

The oversupply of cotton determines the low level oscillation of cotton.

According to the US cotton planting intention report released at the end of June, the US cotton sown area was 76 million 758 thousand mu in 2012, a decrease of 14% compared with the same period last year, of which the sown area of Upland Cotton decreased by 14% compared with that of the previous year, and the planting area of Pima cotton was reduced by 24% compared to the same period last year.

In the USDA report released in July 11th, because of the decline in US cotton production, the end of July 11th cotton inventory fell sharply to 72 million 390 thousand packs, far less than the record of 74 million 510 thousand packages announced in June, to a certain extent, boosted the cotton price.

However, this year's global cotton market is still oversupply, and the inventory consumption ratio is 66.45%.

China's cotton ending inventory is estimated to be 31 million 800 thousand packs, accounting for nearly 44% of the world's total inventory.

It is the loose fundamentals of the world and China that lead to the weakening of domestic and foreign cotton prices. The rise in the past month has lagged far behind that of soybeans, wheat and corn in the agricultural sector.

Purchasing intention of textile enterprises is not strong.

This year, the European debt crisis and the continued appreciation of the RMB have certain impact on the export of Chinese textile enterprises.

In June 2012, China's textile and clothing exports amounted to US $22 billion 888 million, a year-on-year increase of 4.83%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.04%.

Among them, exports of textiles (including textiles, yarns, fabrics and articles) amounted to US $8 billion 408 million, an increase of 0.59% over the same period last year. Exports of garments (including garments and accessories) were US $14 billion 480 million, a decrease of 0.41% over the same period last year.

Because textile and garment exports are slowing down.

Prices remain high, textile enterprises are not enthusiastic about purchasing cotton, most of them are used for mining, and the average cotton inventory is reduced to less than 15 days.

Domestic spot 328 grade cotton stabilizes in 18500 - 18600 yuan / ton, Xinjiang cotton price is near 19000 yuan / ton.

The CF1301 price is higher than the average spot price of 700 yuan / ton, which is attractive to the hedging business. The weak spot price restricts the further rebound of cotton futures.

Huge spreads lead to large domestic imports.

Since February of this year, the spot price of cotton in China is 2000 - 5000 yuan / ton higher than that in the international market. Therefore, the annual import volume of cotton production has increased greatly, which has added to the weak domestic market.

According to Chinese customs statistics, from 1 to June in 2012, China imported 3 million 54 thousand and 700 tons of cotton, an increase of 1 million 728 thousand and 900 tons compared with the same period, an increase of 130.4%.

But because of

A sharp fall in the rate of default on contracts signed earlier has risen sharply.

According to the US cotton export report released in the latest month, the number of cancellations in the US cotton field in 2011/2012 has exceeded the new contract volume, especially in June 11th to June 15th, when the net export volume was -13.66 million tons, of which China cancelled 136 thousand and 900 tons of contracts.

China's large imports will support the international cotton market, but the high default rate will lead to the impeding of the international cotton price rise, which will affect the domestic cotton market and affect the enthusiasm of textile enterprises.