July 27, 2012 Institutional Watch - Cotton Futures

Main points

1. Price Bulletin: domestic lint: 129 level 20294 yuan / ton; 229 level 19436 yuan / ton; 328 level 18524 yuan / ton; 428 grade 17617 yuan / ton.

Domestic textiles: polyester staple fiber 9730 yuan / ton; viscose staple fiber 15050 yuan / ton; C32S price 25380 yuan / ton.

2. domestic stock: on the 26 day, the domestic cotton spot price is stable and the spot market is deserted.

In recent days, rumors about potential dumping in the market have had some impact on the market. The price trend of Zheng cotton is weak, which has some pressure on the domestic spot market.

3. imported cotton: in July 26th, the price of China's main port of imported cotton continued to decline, of which West African cotton and India cotton fell 0.5 cents, while the United States cotton fell 1.5-2 cents.

At the end of the coming year, although the supply of some varieties is relatively tight, the global economic downturn makes the overall consumption insufficient and the market vulnerable pattern difficult to change.

However, textile mills have a glimmer of hope for increasing the quota and dumping of imported cotton.

4. India cotton: according to the latest report of India Meteorological Bureau, as of July 20th, the cumulative rainfall in India was 22% lower than that in the normal year.

Up to now, the cotton planting in Gujarat has only finished 35%.

The Minister of agriculture of India said that if the rainfall in August is still insufficient, cotton production will have major problems, and the government will reconsider the export policy of cotton, wheat and other crops.

5.ICE cotton: European stock market rose sharply in July 26th, as the European central bank governor said it would take all necessary measures to save the euro, and at the same time led to a sharp fall in the US dollar index.

ICE futures began to attract speculative buying after entering the market, and the contract returned to more than 70 cents in December, ending the three day's downward trend.

In addition, the future drought in India also provides support for the market.

Summary:

The two major factors that affect domestic cotton prices are demand and policy. There is no substantial change in demand.

The reserve cotton business conference of the central storage cotton company once again made clear the policy of open storage and storage of cotton in the new year, so as to boost market confidence.

On the 25 day, Zheng cotton 1301 contract ended lower, breaking down the shock interval, which is the first time since nearly 15 trading days, it has been closed below the 40 day moving average. On the 26 day, Zheng cotton continued to go down, but the market resumed.

[Wanda futures] policy is good for American cotton to rebound

As of 19 days, a week cotton textile signed 2200 tons of cotton exports this year, and signed 30073 tons of cotton exports next year, indicating overall demand is still weak.

But the European Central Bank President Delagi promised Thursday that he will take all measures to avoid the collapse of the euro zone, and the central bank will launch more monetary easing hopes.

Meanwhile, drought in India, the world's second largest cotton producer, has lifted ICE cotton from three consecutive days of decline, closing 1.88 cents to 71.39 cents / pound in December and returning to 70-75 cents / pound sideways area again.

But consumption continues to deteriorate, and global supply is still in excess. Speculation of potential drought is difficult to change the market weakness.

Meanwhile, the United States will announce its second quarter GDP on Friday. Before that, it is advisable to be cautious about the single day rebound.

Technically, Thursday's ICE cotton contract December concluded in Zhongyang, and cotton prices stood firm on the short-term average and 70 cents / pound, but KD and MACD indicators still stuck to a downward trend in the form of shorts. The red flag of MACD index shortened to the vulnerable areas under the 0 axis. Cotton prices are still in a weak position. If the price of cotton falls below 70 cents per pound, the downlink space will be opened, otherwise it will continue the 70-75 cent / pound crosses area.

The possibility of China's dumping and storage increased greatly, which made Zheng cotton continue to decline on Thursday.

At present, global consumption is in a downturn because of the global economic downturn. The high price difference between domestic and foreign cotton has made Chinese exports shrink, and the downstream consumer market continues to deteriorate.

Continuing to occupy the market is another factor that restricts cotton prices.

In this way, despite the trend of tight resources at the end of the year, the reserve will ease the tight supply pattern. If the government decides to throw the store, the cotton price will fall when the supply increases, and the challenge will be 18600 yuan / ton. Otherwise, Zheng cotton will rebound and continue the 19100-19700 yuan / ton pattern.

Although the ICE cotton rebounded, it has a limited effect on Zheng Mian Li. On the macro level and the fundamentals are bad, it is recommended to keep empty ideas and continue to hold empty orders. On Friday, it will pay attention to 19100 yuan / ton supporting position and 19400 yuan / tonne pressure level, such as 19100 yuan / ton support has been verified, and the single profit reduction.

[German futures] weak fundamentals, Zheng cotton downward shock

CF1301 opened low on Thursday, and CF1301 closed more than 24.9 million hands.

CF1301 closed at 19155 yuan / ton, down 145 yuan / ton, increased 38896 positions; in July 26th, China's imported cotton (FC Index M) 86.39 cents / pound, fell 1.35 cents / pound, 1% yuan tariff reduced price 13895 yuan / ton, sliding price conversion price 14763 yuan / ton.

According to New York's July 26th news, the ICE cotton futures rose late on Thursday, ending the three consecutive fall, but the quiet trading or market gains were exaggerated.

The ICE12 cotton contract rose 1.88 cents or 2.7%%, at 71.39 cents a pound.

In July 26th, the cotton trading market of the national cotton trading market reached 16320 tons, an increase of 2680 tons from the previous day, an increase of 1140 tons of orders, and a total purchase of 135760 tons.

On the basic level, the bad situation in the peripheral market further suppressed the enthusiasm of the market. From the perspective of the cotton spinning industry chain, the sales situation is still weak, and the weakness of the terminal market continues to keep cotton prices under pressure.

On Thursday, Zheng cotton went down and went down again, and then increased the position of the warehouse again, and 19200 became an effective resistance level. The empty single could continue to hold on the basis of 19200. Although the external market rose yesterday, it was not affected by the weakening of the US dollar.

For today's operation, the CF1301 reference price range is 19000-19400.

[Huaan futures] Zheng cotton bargain cautiously holding 19600, pressure unchanged

Key points:

1, the European debt crisis intensified, the euro downward trend will continue, the global commodity pressure;

2, the British cotton outlook company expects that the global cotton supply will continue to exceed demand in the new year, but the backlog of cotton will drop from 500 to 2 million tons, which will support the long-term cotton price.

3, the main production countries in the United States and India still have uncertainties in cotton production in the new year.

External trend: New York July 26th news, Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) cotton futures closed high on Thursday, ended three consecutive days of decline, because the India government warned that there may be drought, India is one of the world's largest cotton producers.

The cotton contract in December rose 1.88 cents, or 2.7%, at 71.39 cents per pound, with a range of between 69.51 and 72.08 cents per trading.

Early comment: overnight market, the number of sales reports in the US cotton weekly is acceptable, and the main government of India, the main cotton producing country, indicates that there may be drought in the country and the dollar is weakening. ICE cotton has increased by more than 2%.

On the domestic side, the central bank has continued the reverse repurchase operation. It is expected that there will be monetary easing policy in the near future. Under the support of the new year's open price limit, there will be little space below, and the market price will be guided by 20400 in the long term.

On Thursday, Zheng Mian 1301 opened up a concussion. The lowest point hit the brin corridor and recovered. It closed on the cross line and increased its position. The strength of the underside support was strong, and investors in the middle and long line still bought the bargain.

At present, the price difference between the MA1209 market and the futures market is widened to 330 yuan / ton, and the profit is considerable in the period of.

In operation,

The main 1301 contract, 19100 single line near many single can still be admitted to the bargain, but 19600 still under pressure.