A Number Of Favorable Factors In The Second Half Of 2012 Will Help Uplink Cotton Prices.

In the first half of the year, under the shadow of the European debt crisis and the US debt crisis, the world economy declined as a whole, and textile products with strong external demand depended on it.

Exports were hit hard.

At the same time, domestic economic growth slowed down, rising costs and upside down cotton prices and other factors led to the slowdown in textile production, the decline in corporate efficiency and the weakening of export competitiveness.

Export growth in the first half of this year was less than 2%, of which 1, 2, 4, and June showed a negative growth over the same period last year. In June, China's textile and clothing trade volume was 24 billion 920 million US dollars, an increase of 0.06% over the same period last year, of which exports 22 billion 890 million US dollars, a slight decrease of 0.04%, and imports of 2 billion 30 million US dollars, an increase of 1.3%.

This year, the world's largest textile and garment import market, the EU's most pessimistic situation, China's total exports to the EU in the first half of this year, 21 billion 310 million US dollars, down 12.2%.

Due to the delayed rainy season and scarce rainfall, a large area of drought in cotton growing areas in India affected cotton production in 2012/2013 and reduced its cotton export potential.

In addition, the cotton planting area in India is expected to decrease by 200 thousand hectares to 10 million 600 thousand hectares in 2012/2013, much lower than that of 12 million 200 thousand hectares in 2011/2012.

Cotton output in India is expected to shrink by 10% - 15% in 2012/2013.

The US has been spreading to the southwest cotton producing area due to the worsening drought, but the US Department of agriculture unexpectedly raised the US.

To 17 million 650 thousand bales, 16 million 800 thousand packages higher than expected and 17 million packages estimated in July.

The probability of the outbreak of the El Nino weather in late years has spread to major cotton growing countries such as the United States, India and China, and cotton output has faced challenges.

China Cotton Association said that the government's target of domestic cotton production will exceed 6 million 990 thousand tons this year, an increase of 6% over the previous year.

However, it is estimated that in the next 10 days, the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River will be dominated by fine, hot and rainy weather. Most regions will have 3 to 5 days of high temperature at 35 to 37 degrees Celsius.

In addition, some parts of cotton growing areas suffered hail and floods, and some cotton areas suffered dry weather, which affected the growth of cotton. Although there was a recent rainfall, rainfall was less significant for cotton that had already been affected.

Cotton production in China has reached less than 6 million 990 thousand tons this year, or maintained at 6 million 600 thousand tons.

Although the US Department of agriculture's monthly report on demand and supply is bad, the cotton has entered a critical period of growth, and weather factors will be affected.

Output will push cotton prices up. Meanwhile, state purchasing and storage is also approaching. Cotton prices are expected to continue upward and close to the base price of 20400 yuan / ton.