2013, A Quarterly Apparel And Textile Industry Is Generally Flat.

< p > basic data points: the core data of the current period is updated only at the cost side. In December, domestic and foreign gold prices continued to fall slightly (Shanghai gold spot price and Comex gold futures price fell by 2.3% and 2.2% respectively), cotton prices continued to rise slightly and cotton prices rose slightly (cotton index 328 and CotlookA rose 1.4% and 3.1% respectively).

AI predicts that in 2012, a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/" target= "_blank" > clothing < /a > online shopping scale will exceed 300 billion yuan (women's clothing and men's clothing accounted for 41.1% and 17.6% respectively), an increase of 56% over the same period, accounting for 27% of the online shopping market, of which C2C share dropped to 61%, and the share of self operated B2C increased significantly to 22%.

In December, Taobao / Tmall system < a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/" target= "_blank" > shoes < /a > category, men's wear and women's clothing online shopping amount were 113.5, 83.7 and 16 billion 420 million yuan respectively, the passenger price was 2 < /p >

< p > 13, 255 and 201 yuan, AOKANG and nine Mu Wang won fourth and eighth respectively.

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Company tracking: in November, terminal sales increased by 35%, but sales and sales in December decreased by 2 points. In November, the retail sales increased by two percentage points, but the shipment rate was up to 20%. However, the growth of shipments in November was still 20%, but the impact of the electricity supplier was not much higher than that in the traditional channel. Meng Jie: in the November, excluding the electricity supplier, there was a slight increase in terminal sales; old Feng Xiang: the recent order will achieve about 1 billion 600 million sales; AOKANG: the interference of festivals and weather results in poor sales performance in October, and slight improvement in the performance of the company, but the performance is poor. In general, the Q4 terminal sales are worse than the previous three quarters, and sales growth is less than 30%. < p > A shares

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< p > Hong Kong stocks and overseas companies: Baosheng, sporting goods provider, is expected to clear up inventory and result in significant losses in 2012.

In the United States, the growth of business dress shops, ladies' clothing shops, shoe shops and watches / Jewellery / silverware shops slowed down in November, but the growth of sportswear shops increased significantly. As at the end of the latest fiscal season in November 2012, NIKE's revenue in China decreased by 11%, while ASOS's total revenue increased by 30%; while sales in Uniqlo, Gap and LimitedBrands12 increased by 4.5%, 5% and 3%, respectively.

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< p > trend review: 2012 the key Brand Company of the whole year's rise is the card slave, search special and Pathfinder.

12 in the second half of the month, driven by the market, the valuation level of Brand Company continued to rise.

A shares focus on a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_h.asp" > brand > /a > companies and key manufacturing companies continue to push up. The top Brand Company are 100 yuan, card slave and Langer, etc. The H-share advance Brand Company is Ann Li Fang, Baozi and trend, etc. the bigger ones are Wei Qiao and Shenzhou, and the declining Brand Company is Si Jie world, Li bang and dynamic.

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< p > Investment Strategy: in December, the industry gained a significant valuation recovery opportunity.

Judging from the situation in recent months, the base in December is not low, and it is expected that retail sales in December will not be as good as November.

After 13 years of Spring Festival, the situation in 1 and February will be more favorable than 12 years.

However, due to the fact that most Brand Company orders will be held in advance, a quarterly report is expected to be relatively dull.

Therefore, when the valuation is restored to this level, the industry lacks the power to continue to push up valuations in the first half of the year. The industry investment opportunities in the first half of the year are generally relatively dull, and the future valuation repair height is closely related to the market trend.

We recommend that for the first half of the year, a relatively configurable product with a more reliable growth rate and relatively manageable management risks will be recommended for 5 companies, including card slaves, Pathfinder, LAN Zi, fuanna and seven wolves.

In the first half of the year, the first quarter of the card slave, the Pathfinder, and fuanna, a high quarterly base, but suggested that in the second half of the year, it is particularly recommended to focus on.

In addition, from a quarterly point of view, the search for special, Lao Fengxiang, good news birds, AOKANG and other stages can choose the time to pay attention.

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P > risk hints: economic slowdown affects consumer demand; cost increases and profits are reduced; external demand is not affected by a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_s.asp" > export < /a >.

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