Fashion Textile Recommendation 3 Shares Mode Innovation To Enhance Valuation

< p > plate trend review: excipients and leisure plates strongest in 2013, 1-11 months, all A shares rose 6.42%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell 3.36%, while SW < a target= "_blank" href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/" > textile > /a > a target= "a", "clothing" industry index increased 8.78%, slightly outperforming the market.

At present, the market P / E ratio is 19 times (25 times of textile and 17 times of clothing).

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Shenda shares, keno technology, Jia Linjie, Masheng culture and Kaiser share were the top brands of men's wear and performance appraisal double kill brands: search for special brands, good bird, seven wolves, card slave Road, AOKANG international 1.2 terminal level: price increases slowed down, suits, children's wear and women's clothing were strong compared with the previous years. In 2013, the growth of clothing terminal retail sales continued downward: the growth of retail sales of 100 major major retail enterprises increased by two digits in March and June, while the rest months were all single digit growth. The main stocks with the biggest gainers in the year P are the theme stocks.

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< p > compared with previous years, this year showed a weak trend of raising prices, that is, the volume and price were slow. In 2011-2012 years, the price of clothing increased at the two digit level, and the price in 2013 dropped to single digits.

From the perspective of listed companies, some companies have also made price cuts on individual products or have taken cost performance routes such as Pathfinder, card slave Road, American bond a target= "_blank" href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/" > dress < /a >.

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< p > the overall sales volume of clothing increased by 3.56%. From the sales volume of clothing sales in major shopping malls in the country, only suits, children's wear and women's wear increased positively (14.21%, 12.07% and 6.26% respectively), while the rest sales declined and the most were T-shirts (-9.17%).

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< p > online shopping level: traditional brands are once again dominant in 13 years, double eleven and new heights, achieving 35 billion yuan sales, an increase of 83%.

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< p > on the one hand, the traditional clothing brand has shown its skills in the past 13 years: offline brands have obvious advantages in home textiles, leisure, children's wear and outdoor industries, while the online brand superiority of women's wear industry is still obvious.

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< p > on the other hand, in 2013 double eleven began to diversify from the category: in 2013, 2 new categories of household appliances and electronic digital products appeared in TOP10, and millet and Haier ranked first, second respectively.

We believe that clothing online shopping, though currently occupying the first place in the category, is likely to be replaced by 3C products in the future.

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< p > we need to pay attention to the profitability of online sales: from the current situation, there is little difference between offline and offline brands, and the advantages of offline online brand channels will be revealed under the trend of future online and offline prices.

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< p > the level of listed companies: spring and summer orders will start to differentiate. From the inventory and the 2014 spring and summer orders, the sports, leisure and home textile industries that take the lead in the recession will also take the lead in showing signs of bottoming out. But if the terminal is low enough to make the franchisee lack confidence and the level of profitability will fall, the rate of delivery will not be high, and the statement revenue will not confirm that the order will increase.

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< p > export: Europe and the United States replenishment inventory background weak recovery trend continued for 13 years 1-11 months, China's textile and apparel exports totaled 258 billion US dollars, an increase of 11.78% over the same period, of which textiles and clothing increased by 11.49% and 11.96% respectively; in the first 11 months, the single month growth rate was negative in March, with 6 months for two digit growth.

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< p > because of the replenishment effect brought by the economic recovery in Europe and the United States, we will continue to maintain a "weak recovery" trend in the next 14 years. But at the same time, we also think that the export data contain the moisture of inflated trade.

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< p > through the Canton Fair, we can anticipate the export trend in the next 6 months. In 2013, the two Canton Fair was still negative growth, but the decline narrowed (two times by 1% and 3% respectively). Compared with optimistic export data, it still appears to be weak. For the reasons, we think that it is mainly related to the export policy, exchange rate factors and the trade mode pformation brought by the electricity supplier.

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< p > 13, 1-10 months, textile and clothing increased 10.83%, 6.08% and -0.52% respectively for Europe, America and Japan.

From the US clothing and fabric library sales ratio index, it has fallen from month to month after July 2011, and is in a slow going inventory process, but it has increased slightly in 13 years, and 1.81 in September, the average level in recent years.

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< p > 2012, 8-9 months, at home and abroad, < a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/" > cotton price < /a > bad as high as 5460 yuan / ton, a record high, mainly affected by the underpinning function of 2 times purchasing and storage; since the beginning of.2013, the increase of foreign cotton is larger than that of domestic, and the difference between domestic and foreign cotton prices has narrowed, and the lowest value in March reached 2895 yuan / ton. In the new cotton year's policy of purchasing and storage, the difference between inside and outside cotton price has been enlarged, which is currently 4360 yuan / ton.

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< p > market expectations for 2014 are mainly due to the introduction of cotton direct subsidy policy: < /p >

< p > the Ministry of Agriculture recently announced that China's cotton temporary purchase and storage policy will no longer be implemented in the 2014/2015 cotton season.

Cotton industry is widely expected that cotton subsidy policy will be introduced fastest in March 14.

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< p > we believe that the direct subsidy policy will narrow the gap between domestic and foreign cotton prices in the medium and long term, but will result in an impact on the performance in the short term due to high inventory prices.

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< p > cotton price: the direct subsidy policy is short term, and the gross profit of the 2.3 cotton spinning listed companies in the medium and long term is basically restored to normal level from the gross margin level of cotton spinning company.

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< p > cotton spinning company itself has low bargaining power. In the medium and long term, the increase of gross profit margin of cotton spinning company mainly depends on: < /p >

< p > cotton direct subsidy policy. Overseas factories should reduce labor costs and tax costs. Therefore, if we do not consider the direct subsidy policy and the company does not have a large-scale expansion plan, we will judge cotton textile companies to develop steadily next year.

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