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The Bottom Line Of RMB Exchange Rate Is 6.2 Two-Way Fluctuation And Upward Trend Of Exchange Rate Center.

2014/3/14 12:41:00 21

even if the a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_cj.asp" > RMB < /a > is now "falling", the long-term bullish RMB is still the mainstream. Bruce Kasman, chief economist of JP Morgan chase, is one of the bullish investors of overseas investors. 
 "RMB's current depreciation is short term. In the long run, the renminbi will operate in a two-way fluctuation and will continue to appreciate further in the long run." Bruce Kasman told reporters. 
Nicolas Shamtanis, vice president of global business development of foreign exchange trading platform Easy-Forex, said in an interview recently that the bottom line of the RMB's depreciation is 6.2. At present, it is only a normal exchange rate float, and is ready for the upcoming wave to expand to 2% plus or minus 2%. 
 but on Tuesday, when a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_cj.asp" > middle price < /a > and the spot market continued to move towards the direction of devaluation, a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_cj.asp" > RMB to us dollar < /a > 12 months without capital delivery fell 0.25% to 6.2005 yuan. The contract hit 6.2008 in intraday, hitting the lowest intraday rate in October 1st, lower than the spot RMB exchange rate by 0.9%. 
 comparing the middle price, the quotation of 6.2005 of December forward rate indicates that market participants expect that the RMB will continue to depreciate by more than 650 basis points in the coming year. 
 a foreign capital analyst told reporters: "this is mainly the impact of the current panic. From a rational point of view, the RMB fundamentals do not support the downward trend of the RMB's base point in the coming year, unless there are small probability events such as China's economic risk explosion or economic slowdown, and I personally believe that the appreciation of the renminbi will continue to yield good returns under the current devaluation situation, and some offshore hedge funds are already doing this kind of configuration. Of course, betting on RMB investment is not a complete risk-free return. After all, the trend behind the appreciation is two-way volatility." 650. 
 Schroder Asia fixed rate product department believes that in all kinds of emerging market currencies, even though the RMB exchange rate has recently been callback, the performance of RMB is still very stable. In view of various external factors and China's continued easing of exchange rate regulation, the bank believes that the renminbi will continue to appreciate this year, but the overall increase will be lower than in 2013. 
 however, after the RMB has dropped in the past month, the market's expectation of unilateral appreciation of RMB has been broken. Two-way fluctuations have already planted the seeds in the hearts of market participants. 
Huang Yiping, a professor at the National Development Research Institute of Peking University, commented to reporters that the pressure of unilateral appreciation in the past was unlikely to continue. However, it is impossible to maintain a substantial appreciation or depreciation of P. 
"P > Huang Yiping added:" considering the thinking of the central bank's next step of the RMB exchange rate, it is necessary to consider the four dimensions of the United States trade pressure, the export pressure of the Ministry of Commerce, the two-way fluctuation of the exchange reform and the continued weakness of the RMB internationalization. " 
 Sheng Hongqing, chief economist of Everbright Bank (2.37, 0.01, 0.42%), recently estimated that the RMB would appreciate 8% of the US dollar exchange rate in the next four years, that is, the exchange rate would reach 5.6 to the US dollar.