TDC: Hongkong'S Exports Are Weak, And Its Export Growth Is 5.5% This Year.

< p > > a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp" > TDC < /a > announced that the export index for the first quarter of this year was 48.1, a sharp rebound of 9.6 over the previous quarter. However, under the 50 growth and decline line, the research director of trade and Trade Bureau, Guan Jia Ming, said that this reflected the short-term outlook for exports is still slightly pessimistic.

However, he is optimistic about exports from Hongkong and the mainland and remains unchanged in the forecast of 5.5% growth in exports this year.

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"P >" Guan Jia Ming "added that it was mainly affected by the Lunar New Year and last year's cardinal effect. The market also indicated that the export growth was still the first two months after deducting the above factors.

As Hongkong and the mainland export mainly to Europe, the United States and Japan, the economies of these countries have gradually recovered.

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< p > Guan Jia Ming said that the people's Bank of China expanded the RMB to us dollar < a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp" > /a > fluctuation limit to 2%, which has no substantial impact on exports, and may increase RMB instability in the short term, so as to increase exporters' impulse. However, the devaluation of RMB does not necessarily become a long-term trend.

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< p > he pointed out that the space for RMB appreciation will gradually narrow in the future, or some good producers will reduce costs, but if raw materials come from imports, the pressure will increase on the cost of enterprises.

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< p > > the chairman of the industry association, "a href=" //www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp "," Liu hung Hao /a ", said that the risk of exchange risk will be increased after the expansion of the wave amplitude, but it is believed that the manufacturers will carry out more exchange rate hedging pactions in the future to reduce the risk. In addition, the Hong Kong businessmen are still optimistic about the trend of the renminbi in the long run.

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< p > related links: < /p >

What will be the effect of RMB P depreciation? < /p >

< p > first, depreciation will affect prices.

The depreciation of the renminbi makes imported goods more expensive.

In less than three months, we will see that the price of gasoline will rise and the prices of imported grain will also rise.

If the depreciation rate is large, it will cause inflation.

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< p > Second, once inflation occurs, the central bank will raise interest rates or even raise interest rates continuously.

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< p > Third, raising interest rates, especially increasing interest rates continuously, will damage China's economy and lead to a sharp rise in corporate financial costs.

The total liabilities of Chinese enterprises should exceed 70 trillion, and the interest rate increase by one percentage point is 700 billion profit loss.

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< p > Fourth, a substantial increase in financial costs will lead to a decrease in corporate profits, a sharp fall in stock index and further evaporation of social wealth.

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< p > fifth, the biggest blow to raise interest rates is house prices.

China's housing prices are at historically high levels, the largest barrier lake in human history.

In January and February 2014, the national real estate sales decreased by 3.1% compared with the same period last year, which is due to the rise in real interest rates, which led to the reduction of real estate loans and interest rates.

If this happens later, the attack on real estate will be fatal.

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< p > sixth, the great turbulence of exchange rate will lead to the huge outflow of international financial capital from China.

Of course, we hope that the exchange rate should be as stable as possible, and that there should be no hope of turbulence.

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