RMB Spot Exchange Rate Returns To Calm Central Bank Role Or Turn To "Supervisor".

< p > "from the disk, the recent market realisation of the RMB exchange rate is still prudent, which is to a certain extent the correction of the recent rapid trend, showing the market's wait-and-see attitude."

Zhao Qingming, an expert on international financial issues, told reporters that from the international market, the trend of the US dollar and other major currencies has been relatively stable recently.

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< p > however, a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp" > Liu Dongliang < /a > analysis shows that the RMB exchange rate is moving from the "interval + crawling" mode to the "interval + floating" mode.

Correspondingly, the combination of monetary authorities and the market will also change. The role of the central bank will change from "price maker" to "price watchdog".

In the next 6~12 months, the yuan will still have a high chance of innovation.

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< p > < strong > the recent trend is temporary calm < /strong > < /p >.

< p > reporter statistics, if calculated from January 14th this year, as of Thursday (April 3rd), the RMB to us dollar < a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp" > spot rate /a > (inquiry) amplitude was 3.25% (1964 points).

However, in March 21st, after a record low of more than 1 years (6.2370), this sharp depreciation stopped abruptly, and there was a sharp rebound.

Since March 26th, as of Thursday, the spot fluctuation of the RMB against the US dollar has fluctuated within 200 days.

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"P >" from the disk, < a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp" > RMB < /a > the trend of the recent week is indeed prudent, which first reflects that the economic fundamentals do not support the continued decline in exchange rate, which is also in line with the basic requirements of China's "managed floating exchange rate system".

Zhao Qingming told reporters, "but this lateral fluctuation is only temporary, and the future volatility will be stronger."

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Most of the analysts interviewed by P said that the RMB exchange rate could not continue to depreciate until June.

Chen Long, a financial analyst at Bank of Dongguan, said the US Federal Reserve might accelerate its exit from the QE in June. If the renminbi depreciates to June, it may become a trend devaluation.

If the central bank can maintain the exchange rate in a certain interval, the market will form a new understanding of the equilibrium position of the RMB exchange rate.

This is the best for the central bank, which can squeeze out arbitrage funds and allow long-term investment in industrial funds to stay in China.

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< p > Zhao Qingming told reporters that next RMB spot exchange rate is difficult to break through the 6.25 integer pass.

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< p > strong > RMB exchange rate may still be "broken 6" < /strong > < /p >.

< p > in Liu Dongliang's view, after the latter half of February, especially after the expansion of the RMB limit in March, the RMB exchange rate is moving from the "interval + crawling" mode to the "interval + floating" mode.

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< p > "in the" interval + crawling "mode, based on the middle price, the exchange rate can only fluctuate within a narrow range of up and down 1%, and the monetary authorities will actively intervene in the exchange rate. Therefore, the monetary authority will become the de facto price maker and the exchange rate volatility is very low.

Liu Dongliang said.

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< p > Liu Dongliang also said in the recent analysis report that in the "interval + floating" mode, the middle price is still the benchmark, the exchange rate volatility has increased to 2%, the monetary authorities have quit normal intervention, and the market has significantly increased the impact on prices. Because the market and monetary authorities are all price makers, the exchange rate volatility has increased significantly.

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< p > Liu Dongliang said that the fluctuation of up and down 2% means a daily fluctuation range of 4%, which can meet the demand for exchange rate in most cases.

Theoretically, within the 4% fluctuation range, the monetary authority can allow the market to fluctuate freely.

However, the monetary authorities will still tolerate the bottom line of exchange rate fluctuations. This tolerance may be substantially higher than before, but it does not mean that it can tolerate disorder. If the RMB continues to rise or decline or at a certain stage, it will rapidly increase the depreciation, which will lead to the intervention of the central bank.

The role of the central bank will shift more from "price maker" to "price watchdog".

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< p > "after all, China's exchange rate market is not completely marketization. It is still a managed floating exchange rate system. The so-called management is managed by the central bank, and the purpose of management is to maintain the stability of the exchange rate."

Zhao Qingming told reporters.

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Liu Dongliang believes that in the short term, the trend of the RMB exchange rate mainly depends on the realization of the US dollar, the economic data, and the propaganda of the monetary authority. In the medium term, the real interest rate difference between the RMB and the US dollar will remain at an attractive level, which determines that the RMB will still have a strong momentum of appreciation in the medium term. It is expected that there will still be room for P appreciation in the 6~12 months, that is, there is still a chance of innovation. After 6~12 months, the monetary policy of China and the United States will probably change, and the actual interest rate between China and the United States will gradually narrow, and the momentum of the appreciation of the currency will tend to weaken.

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< p > Zhao Qingming also believes that on the whole, it is possible for the RMB exchange rate to appreciate by 3~5% this year, and there is still a chance to break the 6.

In the long run, the renminbi still underestimates to some extent, and the marketization of exchange rate means that it will continue to appreciate in the future.

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P, however, Zhao Qingming also pointed out that the Fed's withdrawal from QE and the possible increase in interest rates next year will not necessarily lead to a rise in the US dollar.

In fact, after the United States announced the reduction of QE, the US dollar did not go up sharply, and some currencies even fell.

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