Monthly Report On Cotton Situation In China (October 28, 2014)

Weather and so on Factor Affected, cotton growth is slow this year, the picking date is postponed, and the total output of cotton decreases. With the implementation of the new year's macroeconomic regulation and control policy and the implementation of the Xinjiang cotton target price reform pilot scheme, the acquisition of seed cotton has gradually started. Due to the double effects of pickup delay and price decline, enterprises are cautious in entering the market, cotton farmers are reluctant to sell more heavily, the market is in a stalemate, and the progress of purchase is considerably slower than that of the same period last year. Cotton prices returned to the market and lint spot prices increased.

In September, most of the the Yellow River River Basin, the northern part of the Yangtze River Valley, and the northern and eastern parts of Xinjiang continued to have more precipitation and less light, which was unfavorable for cotton yield formation and quality improvement. The output of the three cotton regions decreased slightly compared with the previous stage. The China Cotton Association expects the total output of the country to be 6 million 660 thousand tons, down by 50 thousand tons. Cotton growing slowly in Xinjiang and Changjiang River Valley, delayed picking period, and some cotton early maturing or premature senescence in the Yellow River River Basin, picking faster. End By the end of September, the national cotton picking rate was 33.6%, down 11 percentage points compared with the same period last year.

Cotton growers have a higher expectation of purchasing prices, and are reluctant to sell at the beginning of the scale. As the market prices fall, the loss of cotton processing enterprises is expected to increase, and the market will be cautious. Buyers and sellers are mainly wait-and-see, and cotton picking has not yet been formed, and the progress of sales is slow. As of the end of September, the national cotton farmers' sales progress was 3.9%, down 13 percentage points from the same period last year. The purchasing price was significantly lower than that of the same period last year. The average purchase price of grade 3128 seed cotton in the 400 type processing enterprises in September was 6.63 yuan / kg, down 23.9% from the same period last year. Affected by the slow progress of the acquisition, the number of new cotton stocks is relatively small, and the turnover level of commodity cotton is low. As of the end of September, the total turnover of the total commodity cotton turnover was about 133 thousand tons, which was basically flat, down 81% compared to the same period last year.

With the increase in the number of new cotton listed, lint Sales prices fell faster and larger, with a drop of more than 1600 yuan / ton in September. The average price of CC Index 3128B in China in September was 16591 yuan / ton, down 2.8% from the same month.

Textile market began to enter the traditional peak season, but affected by factors such as no improvement in demand and uncertain market outlook, the peak season was not strong, and cotton prices fell. Textile enterprises were not eager to purchase. Import quotas decreased and cotton imports continued to decline. According to customs statistics, in September, 123 thousand tons of cotton imported from China decreased by 40%, down 39% from the same period last year. The import of cotton yarn has picked up. In September, it imported 174 thousand tons, an increase of 15.8%. Textile production continued to grow, with yarn production of 3 million 405 thousand tons in September, an increase of 5.1% over the month, but the export of textile and clothing decreased. In September, the export volume was 2 million 855 thousand tons, a decrease of 6.5%.

Entering the October, cotton acquisition and processing entered the peak season. With the large-scale cotton backbone enterprises taking the lead in entering the market, breaking the deadlock, opening up the scale business increased significantly, cotton farmers' willingness to sell, cotton purchasing prices stabilized and picked up.