Hong Kong Stocks, Slow Cattle And American Stock Slow Down Are Almost At The End.

In fact, the A bull market in 2007 was inseparable from the performance inflection point of the heavy industry.

In 2007, all heavy chemical industries in China reached the most prosperous period since the founding of the people's Republic of China in terms of capacity, performance and net profit.

However, this is also the last supper of China's heavy chemical industry.

The subsequent global financial crisis startled China. We launched a 4 trillion rescue plan. The ten industry revitalization plan is the last straw to destroy China's heavy chemical industry.

On the basis of the huge expansion and heavy surplus of heavy chemical industry, we have ignited the last fire of capacity expansion.

As a result, heavy chemical industry has entered the "severe winter" with serious excess capacity.

Therefore, from the end of 2007, the A share market began to enter the "index bear market" and heavy chemical industry stocks became the first killer.

The share price of Wuhan Iron and Steel Group (600005) has plummeted from 23.68 yuan in October 2007 to 1.98 yuan in June 2014, and its income tax dropped from 2 billion 887 million in 2007 to 70 million yuan in 2012.

This is a typical representation or epitome of heavy chemical industry.

Besides steel, the capacity of heavy chemical industries such as automobiles, coal, electricity, cement, nonferrous metals, glass, ships and machinery is also overabundant.

However, in the process of driving down the index bear market in the heavy chemical industry, small and medium sized boards and gem boards as representatives of private enterprises and high-tech industries have been singing triumphant and popular. In the index bear market dominated by heavy chemical industry, small and medium sized boards and gem have become a bright spot in China's stock market.

In fact, in November 17, 2014, when Shanghai and Hong Kong opened and the index bull market started, the average price earnings ratio of small and medium sized boards reached 44 times, while the gem price earnings ratio had already exceeded 70 times.

That is to say, after the 6124 point accident, the Chinese stock market exploded a fierce bear, but after all, it was only a bear market for heavy chemical industrial stocks and big weight stocks. This pure index bear market had nothing to do with small plates and gem.

Because in this index bear market, small and medium-sized board and gem are out of the opposite bull market.

It is based on this.

Characteristics, the current round bull market in November 17, 2014 detonated the big stock market "bullish" market, the agency repeatedly concentrated the firepower to fry the big weight stocks, frantically pulled up the Shanghai Composite Index, and then formed the index mad cow, but the small and medium sized board and the growth enterprise board formed the head in advance.

The average price earnings ratio has dropped from 44 times to 42 times yesterday, and the average price earnings ratio of the gem has dropped from 70 times to 64 times that of yesterday.

But on the contrary, the Shanghai Stock Exchange's average price earnings ratio has increased from 11 times to 16.58 times.

Above, we explain why the index bull market only fry large cap stocks (including deficit type large cap stocks) instead of small and medium sized boards and gem.

Now, let's guess again where the end of this round of index mad cow will be. Some people say 4000 points, 5000 points, and 6000 points. In fact, these are all crazy rumors of mad cow pyramid sellers.

In fact, after the 6124 point accident, the general trend of China's stock market is "exponential bear market".

If we shut down 6124 accidents and misunderstandings, we will find that from October 2008 to now, we have experienced two big bull markets.

The first round of fast bull: from 1664 in October 28, 2008 to 3478 in August 4, 2009, the Shanghai Composite Index soared 100% in just 10 months.

After this bull market, we have experienced a slow bear for 4 years, and the Shanghai Composite Index has fallen by 50%. This is a typical and complete cycle of bull and bear.

Just because the slow bear is too durable, it can offset people's memory of a short bull market.

The second round

From 1849 points in June 25, 2013 to today's mad cow, according to the experience of A shares, the total increase of the mad cow will not exceed 100%, that is, from 1849 to 3600. If it is from the time of mad cow, it will not exceed 20 months, that is, from June 2013 to February 2015.

This round of A shares is likely to end again with the western slow bull.

The above is purely technical experience analysis. If we further look at the macroeconomic fundamentals, we will not even support A shares.

In 2015, China's economy will continue downward. Heavy chemical industry still has no capacity to solve the problem of excess capacity. High energy consumption and high pollution industries will be the biggest obstacle to economic pformation and industrial upgrading.

With the increase of labor costs, the virtualization of industrial capital, the increase of social welfare pressure, the depreciation of RMB and the sharp decline of purchasing power, all these will pose a major threat to China's economic growth.