PTA Industry Is In The Process Of Going Stock, Limiting Production And Protecting Price, Playing A Role Of "Stopping Pain".

In the early November 20th, chemical products futures were weak, and PTA was affected by this effect.

In the afternoon, Hengli Petrochemical announced that the production capacity of line 2 million 200 thousand was 2 million 200 thousand tons. Tung Kun Petrochemical also announced that the capacity of 1 million 500 thousand tons could be stopped for second days.

Affected by this, PTA prices rebounded sharply.

However, at the end of the day, plastic and PP joined hands to limit the rebound height of PTA, and PTA increased substantially.

At the close, the 1601 futures contract of PTA futures closed at 4628 yuan / ton, up 86 yuan / ton compared with the previous trading day, or 1.89%.

Investment overheating in the past few years and the slowdown in economic growth in recent two years

The basic raw material industry is overcapacity.

Among them, the PTA industry can be regarded as a typical example.

At present, the biggest negative factor is the Fed's interest rate increase in December.

Market expectations for the fed to raise interest rates during the year are very strong.

However, is the Fed going to raise interest rates and commodities will collapse?

I believe that raising interest rates is indeed a bad thing for commodities. Once the Fed raises interest rates, the possibility of large commodities falling sharply will be present in the short run under the influence of market sentiment.

However, the bigger probability is that the profits will go up, and the profits will go away.

For example, when the US launched the QE3 in 2012, crude oil prices continued to fall instead of rising.

The industry is in the process of going out of stock, and the production enterprises' unilateral reduction is not the rise of price, but the market share of their own being grabbed by other enterprises.

In the oligopoly market, several big factories can sometimes "hold up for heating" and push up the PTA price through the limited production alliance in order to alleviate the problem of deteriorating operation.

However, oligopoly alliance is not stable, once the price rises to the extent acceptable to a certain enterprise, they will re drive.

At this point, other enterprises can only restart the device passively.

As a result, prices will return to the weak.

However, in the short term

For the market is indeed a real profit.

The collective overhaul of enterprises, especially the production stop of Hengli petrochemical industry, shows that the current price enterprises are hard to accept, and there is little room for prices to continue to fall when there is no big bad situation.

Because once the price continues to fall, it will cause more enterprises to reduce production, thereby pushing up prices.

Limited production insurance is not a life-saving drug, but it can still play a certain "pain relief" effect for manufacturing enterprises.

Even if the Fed raises interest rates on the market, considering that the US dollar has risen for more than a month, the price of crude oil has dropped to a low level near the previous low point, which is a great majority.

If the Fed does not raise interest rates, it may compensate for the earlier decline.

Therefore, the Fed's interest rate hike in December was a small but more profitable commodity.

In addition, from the perspective of downstream demand, every year in December, due to the need for winter clothing sales, polyester enterprises will focus on stocking, and polyester stocks begin to enter the growth cycle.

Although there is not enough willingness to make up the Treasury when prices are weak, demand will still be boosted.