Market Supply Of Cotton Is Tight And Cotton Prices Are Rising.

China's cotton reserve management company plans to sell 30 thousand tons of cotton reserves (sold domestically), and the average price is 15201 yuan / ton, and the price is 3128 yuan, 16063 yuan / ton. The highest paction price was 16490 yuan / ton on that day, reaching a new high of 83.3360 tons. The lowest paction price was 14490 yuan / ton, a total of 67.5150 tons, the highest increase was 2960 yuan / ton, the main grade 33 grade 90.58, the average length was 90.58.

As of July 27th, the total planned output of 1 million 593 thousand and 600 tons was up to 1 million 567 thousand and 100 tons, and the turnover rate was 98.34%, with a turnover rate of 98.34%, of which 1 million 270 thousand and 800 tons of domestic cotton were accumulated, with a turnover rate of 98.38%. The total import cotton turnover was 296 thousand and 300 tons, with a turnover rate of 98.16%; the cumulative paction average length was 28.3mm, and the highest price was 16490 yuan / ton, the lowest price was 9730 yuan / ton, and the 3128 price was 15790 yuan / ton, the average price was about RMB yuan / ton, and the total number of traders reached the target.

As of July 28th, all over the country

The price is 14500-15500 yuan / ton, up 800-1100 yuan / ton compared with the same period last month. The point that causes cotton prices to rise is that the output of cotton reserves is lower than the actual demand of the market. At this node, whether the output of the stock market can increase or increase is very critical.

The price will remain stable and strong. However, in view of the obvious increase in the current cotton spot price, the market should remain calm.

It is understood that the recent cotton reserve turnover rate is still high, textile enterprises pay a positive price, the highest paction price has repeatedly hit a new high, the highest of more than 16000 yuan / ton, the high paction price also led to the market cotton (14765, -15.00, -0.10%) price is strong.

And data show that, because this year's reserve cotton rotation does not restrict the traders to take stock, the number of cotton reserves participating in the auction now accounts for about 40% of the total volume of pactions. With the uncertainty of the increase in price and the policy of late rounds, traders are gradually optimistic about the future market. Most of the reserved cotton reserves are sold for sale. This part of the reserve cotton has formed commercial inventories, and has not been sent to the market. The price quoted in the spot market is too high and the actual turnover is very few, which to a certain extent aggravated the cotton.

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Affected by the decline in planting efficiency, the planting area in the mainland of China continued to decrease in 2016. According to the June cotton planting area survey report, in 2016, the national cotton sowing area was 43 million 851 thousand mu, a decrease of 7 million 337 thousand mu compared with the same period last year, a decrease of 14.3%, of which the the Yellow River basin decreased by 24.7% compared to the same period last year, the Yangtze River Basin decreased by 27.7% compared with the same period last year, and the northwest inland area decreased by 7% compared with the same period last year. However, the sowing area of the the Yellow River and Yangtze River areas in the main cotton producing areas of the mainland decreased again, which was partly affected by the inconsistency of planting subsidies (2015, the maximum cotton subsidy per ton in the mainland was 2000 yuan, which was lower than the 4000 yuan / ton level of Xinjiang).

In addition, the early rainstorm also had adverse effects on cotton yield. The survey showed that cotton growth was basically normal in the the Yellow River River Basin and the northwest inland cotton area as of the end of June. Flooding in the Yangtze River Basin had an impact on cotton growth. The number of cotton bolls and bolls decreased year by year, and the picking time was expected to be delayed.

If the weather is normal, it is estimated that the total output of new cotton will be reduced by 7.2% in 2016, and the further reduction of cotton production will provide a good support for the market price of cotton in 4 million 839 thousand.

Subject to the huge domestic reserves, China began to control cotton imports in 2014. In addition to the additional 894 thousand tons of tariffs imposed by the WTO, the import quota of cotton imports is no longer increased in principle. Moreover, customs and competent departments have increased the examination and supervision of the "agent import" and "entrust imports". In the past 2011-2013 years, the influx of large quantities of imported cotton has disappeared.

After the issuance of the cotton reserve policy in 2016, cotton prices at home and abroad were further linked and gradually approached. At this time, the cotton price outside the 894 thousand ton tariff quota completely lost the advantage of cost performance. The domestic textile enterprises could only turn to the use of reserve cotton, which led to the continuous reduction of cotton imports this year. According to the statistics of the General Administration of customs, China imported 72 thousand tons of cotton in June 2016, a decrease of 6 thousand tons, a decrease of 7.7%, a decrease of 89 thousand tons compared with the same period last year, and a reduction of 54.6%.