This Year, Cotton Ginning Mills And Cotton Companies Are Much Better.

Since late November, Zheng cotton CF1705 contract has 15600-16500 yuan / ton wide body oscillation (center of gravity moves downward); the intensity of replenishment of cotton textile factories and traders in and out of Xinjiang is still lower than expected, but the spot price of supporting cotton remains high; in addition, 10-12 month Xinjiang cotton supports the real factors such as pportation of "Xinjiang cotton" and "real estate cotton" as "supporting role".

Compared with the straight decline of the domestic cotton and cotton spot market in April September 2015, this year, the cotton mill and the cotton business have had a much better life.

From the following points of view:

First, in 2017, how much can cotton spot go up? From the time of sale, it is speculated that domestic demand and consumption of cotton will basically stagnate in mid January 2017 until mid February, and the national cotton store will be launched in March 6th. Therefore, if it is not concentrated before the middle of January, Xinjiang cotton will only have to wait until 3 and April to have the opportunity to calculate the financial cost for 5 months, when the price of 16300-16600 yuan / ton in the "double 28" territory will be unchanged from the current level.

Second, the price of domestic cotton is pressed by outer cotton.

At present, the cost of customs clearance of the Australian cotton 1% in the 4-6 month shipment period in 2017 is about 14800-15000 yuan / ton, which is very competitive compared with the price of Xinjiang cotton. In addition, it is estimated that as at the end of December 2016, the cotton import quota will be extended to about 200000 tons in February 2017 until the end of February 2017, plus 2017 1% tariff quota 894 thousand tons, at least to July 2017.

Relatively adequate;

Thirdly, reserve cotton is not useless.

5-9 months from 2016.

From the feedback point of view, the quality and spinnability of reserve cotton are still very strong. Some large factories that spin 40S or more cotton yarns are also actively bidding and receiving goods, which has not significantly affected the delivery and orders of the product contracts. Some factories have even retained cotton import quotas, and only purchased cotton and Xinjiang cotton blended cotton spun yarn.

Considering that the output of reserve cotton in 2017 is sufficient, the supply of combed yarn, high cotton and high count yarn can not be determined, but the supply effect is outstanding.

Fourth, the funds of cotton processing enterprises are still under pressure.

A large proportion of cotton ginning plants in Xinjiang use loans from the Agricultural Development Bank, credit cooperatives and other commercial banks. Loans must be returned in monthly and pro rata proportions. Finally, the "double knot zero" will be achieved at the end of August 2017. The pressure of funds can be seen as follows: whether cotton can survive or not is worth discussing.

In addition, compared with self financing and joint venture acquisitions, the acquisition of funds is not easy for nearly 10 months.

Five,

The pressure of downstream products such as grey cloth increased.

At present, the price difference between port and Pakistan yarn and domestic yarn has reached 800-1200 yuan / ton, and imported yarn is coming to the domestic market. "Small and medium sized cotton spinning factories producing C32S and below" have already taken actions to reduce production and stop production. India cotton market has been postponed, export postponed and domestic monetary policy hidden danger has been eliminated. India cotton purchase, processing and export are on the right track, India yarn competitiveness is "strong and not weak". With the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate, export situation is becoming more and more complex. What is cotton yarn and grey cloth to rely on to raise cotton price?

According to the author's investigation, as early as December, the direct cost of cotton grade 3128 lint in Kashi is about 15000-15300 yuan / ton (including machine pick up cotton, and the individual cotton mill in Akesu and cotton area may be less than 15000 yuan / ton). If the financial cost is 350-400 yuan / ton (calculated by three months, the monthly interest rate of commercial loans is about 8%), the lint cost is about 15400-15700 yuan / ton in the comprehensive cost of the warehouse. According to the calculation of the gross price of cotton in the current platform, the cotton enterprise has little profit, but it will not hang up any losses.

This is why the cotton processing enterprises and cotton producers in the territory are hesitant and hesitate to sell or stay in cotton.

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