Zheng Cotton Trend Shocks Xinjiang Cotton Open Balance Price Dispute

Last week, after the opening of the new round of Sino US negotiations and the stimulus of the national economic news, Zheng Mian futures rebounded in September 6th (Friday), hitting a high limit of 13160 yuan / ton. Then good was quickly digested. In September 9th, Zheng cotton futures fell sharply. The CF2001 price of the main contract dropped to 12890 yuan / ton, down 50 yuan / ton, or 0.39%, and the bull cut was obvious. Yesterday's night market began to pick up again, and the futures trend was unstable. The purchase price of new cotton brought many unstable factors. Recently, the mainland cotton seed has been opened up for scale purchase, but the Xinjiang area seems to be in the clouds.

According to the recent research in Xinjiang, Kashi, Akesu, Turpan and other places in southern Xinjiang have piecemeal test results. The main purchasing price of Kashi 41%-42% clothing is 5.6-5.8 yuan / kg, and the mainstream purchasing price of Turpan 37%-38% is 5.4-5.6 yuan / kg, while most other parts of the territory do not have a high degree of recognition of the current purchase price.

First of all, at present, most of the cotton that can be picked is early maturing or the hand picked cotton with better ventilation in the field. The overall harvest is not large, and the cotton farmers only sell the goods in a piecemeal manner. Secondly, the enterprises that harvest cotton seeds are mainly enterprises in the production line of civilian cotton, and the seed cotton purchased is also used for processing cotton, and the use is more special. Moreover, the price of lint is still at a low level, and futures still have a risk of continuing to fall. The ginning mills now dare to buy, most of them have already had contract orders, and the cotton seeds after processing have basically locked the sales channels, so we can say that the overall risk is controllable. Most enterprises believe that the volume of late listing will increase, and the spun cotton digestion will not be so fast, so the estimated price will be lower than the price already sold.

According to the author's in-depth investigation, last year, because of the new cotton market in Xinjiang, the market for civilian cotton was very tight. Because of the unique climatic conditions, the cotton market in Kashi, Bachu and Turpan was relatively fast, and gradually developed a part of the civilian cotton production line. However, this year's cotton market has been declining, and the order of cotton wool has not increased as scheduled. Recently, Bachu's opening up business has been stagnant due to rainfall. Cotton prices fell sharply last year, causing huge losses to many enterprises. So many of this year's ginning mills said they would combine futures with hedging to lock in profits and operate. However, the futures price is not ideal at present. Therefore, some enterprises believe that if the price of hand picking cotton seed is higher than 5.5 yuan / kg, the risk of operation will be very high, which is not conducive to the late guarantee.

To sum up, the price of Xinjiang cotton scale is still uncertain. It is suggested that enterprises should pay close attention to the harvest situation after the massive cotton market in the middle and late this month. According to the cotton price trend, reasonable arrangement of harvest progress.