May Property Market Warming Perspective: The Price Inversion Of "Million People Yaohao"

At the end of 5, Hangzhou's "ocean Xixi mansion" project led to a batch of housing (959 sets) pre-sale permit, attracting 50 thousand families to sign up. Because the number of applicants is too large, developers have to wrap up Internet cafes, 24 hours of continuous review of housing qualifications. According to this ratio, the probability of winning the project is less than 2%.

Recently, the Hangzhou property market has been fired up by this news. The recovery of the property market from the epidemic also seems to be evident.

The phenomenon of more than 50 thousand people's Yaohao is rare. However, despite this extreme case, there has been a phenomenon of "Yaohao" in recent years in Nanjing and Chengdu. Compared with the amount of housing released, the success rate of these projects is below 5%.

Second hand housing transactions warming is also obvious, although not as obvious as new houses, but individual quality housing transactions quickly, and the recent second-hand housing transaction prices rose significantly.

Since the end of 3 this year, the real estate market has gradually recovered from the new crown pneumonia epidemic. How did the "ten thousand people Yaohao" come into being? How big does the secondary housing warming affect the overall market? Behind all appearances, what is the truth of the property market's recovery?

Although the recovery is strong, in most institutions, the May property market, which is driven by multiple factors, is likely to be difficult to sustain. - Gan Jun photo

Individual new housing project "ten thousand people Yaohao"

The ocean Xixi mansion project is located in the future science and technology city of Hangzhou. It is understood that the project took place in 2009, and shareholders have also undergone changes. Due to the long development cycle, the price of second-hand housing around the project is about 35 thousand -4 yuan / square meter, and the maximum price of the project is only 28 thousand yuan / square meter.

In consideration of stabilizing housing prices, Hangzhou has been restricting the record price of new housing projects. In recent years, the price of second-hand housing in Hangzhou has been rising, but the restrictions on new housing prices have not been significantly relaxed. This makes some areas in the new housing and second-hand housing prices appear a certain "upside down".

A housing company in Hangzhou told reporters on twenty-first Century economic report that in recent years, Hangzhou has repeatedly seen the upside down phenomenon of new and second-hand housing prices, while buyers are buying with the mentality of "buy and earn".

For this hot project, the person also said that the future technology city belongs to the New District of Hangzhou, locating in the talent zone for developing high-tech industries. In recent years, Hangzhou has been lowering the threshold for attracting talents. This area is the biggest beneficiary.

In twenty-first Century, a survey by the economic news reporter found that similar price upside down phenomena occurred in Nanjing and Chengdu, which also appeared in the near future.

At the beginning of May, the Yaofu City Project in Chengdu was officially launched by Yaohao. The number of houses released was 786 sets, while the number of people participating in Yaohao reached 40 thousand. It is understood that the price of the project is 11 thousand -1.4 yuan / square meter, and the surrounding second-hand housing price has exceeded 16 thousand yuan / square meter.

Since the price of second-hand housing is upside down, there are 6 projects in Chengdu this year. The number of winning entries is 8%, except that the success rate of other projects is less than 5%.

However, Chengdu's local real estate practitioners point out that Chengdu's local talent introduction policy and the release of the backlog demand during the epidemic are also important reasons for the demand to release and the new housing transaction to heat up.

"Nationwide, Yaohao is still a case." Yan Yuejin, director of the think-tank center of Shanghai Yi Ju Real Estate Research Institute, believes that the new housing market is gradually warming up, but the hot selling phenomenon mainly exists in the hot second tier cities, and is limited to only a few projects with obvious advantages in price. On the whole, there are still a large number of projects with low conversion rate in the market.

Shell Research Institute data show that in 1-5 months of 2020, the total number of transactions and the total area of the 66 cities' new housing market decreased by 21.9% and 20% respectively. That is to say, although some projects are highly concerned, the volume of new home transactions has only recovered to about 80% of the same period last year.

Second hand housing price rise

What is the situation in the secondary housing market where prices are limited and transactions are more continuous?

Shell Research Institute pointed out that in May this year, the volume of second-hand housing in key 18 cities chain grew by 15.2%, an increase of 42% over the same period last year. In May, volume reached 98% of the highest monthly turnover last year (March 2019).

"The impact of the epidemic on the market is gradually decreasing." The agency believes that the volume of second-hand housing transactions increased significantly in May, which was related to the delayed release of demand for the epidemic, the "May 1" small holiday convenience period and the decline in mortgage interest rates affecting buyers' expectations.

At present, the number of second-hand housing transactions in more than 30 cities exceeds that of new houses. Therefore, the second-hand housing transaction is not only considered to reflect the real situation of the market better, but also has an important impact on the overall transaction scale of the city.

Take Beijing as an example, according to the data of Beijing Municipal Housing Construction Commission, in May 2020, the size of Beijing second-hand housing net signed was 16 thousand sets, an increase of 39%, an increase of 75% over the same period last year. On the scale of the 4172 set of new housing transactions, the scale of commercial housing transactions in Beijing exceeded 20 thousand in May, reaching the highest level after the 317 new deal in 2017.

Among them, in May 29th, the scale of Beijing's second-hand housing transactions was broken thousands of times, which is the first time since March 2019.

In May, the Beijing property market was heating up, which was related to the increase in the volume of school district housing transactions triggered by the new Xicheng District education reform. But despite this factor, the Beijing market is still heating up. Shell Research Institute pointed out that in May, Beijing's second-hand housing transaction period was 139 days, which was 22 days shorter than that in April.

Yan Yuejin believes that compared with many southern cities, Beijing's market recovery is relatively late due to epidemic prevention and control requirements, and May is the most obvious month for demand release. He said that in some cities such as Shenzhen, which had taken the lead in warming up, the scale of transactions has declined.

According to the twenty-first Century economic report reporter survey, the transaction cycle shortened, the volume of transactions increased, and good housing sources were snapped up, becoming a common phenomenon in the recent hot urban second-hand housing transactions, which also promoted the transaction price increase.

Zhuge search data research center pointed out that in May 2020, the average price of second-hand housing market in 100 key cities was 15208 yuan / square meter, a rise of 0.41%, an increase of 1.33% over the same period. Among them, the average price of second-hand housing reached 61279 yuan per square meter in the first tier cities in May.

The market is still going downhill.

Although the recovery is strong, in most institutions, the May property market, which is driven by multiple factors, is likely to be difficult to sustain.

Shanghai Yi Ju Real Estate Research Institute pointed out that from the May city performance, Suzhou, Yangzhou, Chengdu, Wuxi and other 4 cities volume decreased. In addition, the second-hand housing market is the first hot Shenzhen, Nanjing and Hangzhou, the growth rate of the ring also dropped sharply. This also shows that the release of the current round of demand is relatively limited, it is difficult to form sustained support for the market.

The agency pointed out that in this year's downward pressure on the economy, the government work report still reiterated that "housing does not stir up" under the backdrop of hot cities, second-hand housing transactions are difficult to maintain the current activity.

Then, if the price inversion phenomenon persists, will the demand be transferred to the new housing market? Hangzhou housing prices in the past believe that, in the case of Hangzhou, unless the (price advantage) of new housing supply increased substantially, otherwise the market's heat is also very difficult to continue.

He said that according to past experience, after a wave of quotations, the market will usually cool down very quickly. Moreover, "ten thousand people Yaohao" only occurred on individual items. Overall, the market demand of Hangzhou did not increase significantly.

Yan Yuejin also believes that from a number of cities to relax the regulation of "one day tour", regulators strictly control credit funds into real estate and other practices, the current policy side has not significantly relaxed, the release of future demand will not be too great. Plus the traditional off-season is coming, so the market is likely to drop slightly after June.

Guoxin Securities said that sales in April and May did improve significantly, but this did not change the direction of the downward sales cycle. It is estimated that the sales volume will still decrease by 10% this year.

"Without considering the epidemic situation, sales are already in the down cycle." Guoxin Securities said that the recent sales warming has both increased supply drivers and a demand gap to fill the epidemic. If the demand side policy environment does not change, after the completion of the "filling pit", the market will still face "downhill" sales.