In The First Half Of The Year, The Capital Will Be Turned Into Inventory, And In The Second Half Of The Year, The Machine Will Be Shut Down And The Goods Will Be "Renewed"?

Since the outbreak of Xinguan epidemic and its continuous spread, the global textile output and order volume have been falling, and the retail turnover has dropped sharply, which may continue to be a long-term downturn. The sharp weakness of clothing consumption demand in the international market directly leads to the product structure of China's textile and clothing export. Although some European countries have gradually relaxed their control policies and the global supply chain shows signs of recovery, on the whole, the negative impact on the industrial chain is inevitable.

Manpower and orders, difficulties and recovery of textile industry in the first half of the year

According to the Research Report of Great Wall Securities, as of June 24, the textile and clothing industry index (Shenwan) fell by 5.96% this year, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 2.31% over the same period. Since the beginning of the year, the textile and garment industry ranks 21st among all 28 shenwanyi industries. In the sub plate, women's wear and casual wear had a larger decline.

Such performance, with the textile and clothing industry in the first half of the "cold winter" commensurate. However, if broken down, in the first quarter and the second quarter of the first half of this year, the "cold degree" of the textile and clothing industry is not the same. In the first quarter, affected by the difficulty of resuming work and production and the impact of overseas epidemic, the textile and clothing industry was relatively "frozen", but the second quarter has begun to ease.

Chen Huan, the boss of Guangzhou Canping Trading Co., Ltd., told reporters that the company returned to work in early March, about one and a half months later than the original normal date. But even if it was to return to work, the staff did not arrive.

"Our factory is not big. There are only more than ten people in our factory. Because of the epidemic, many workers' children did not go to school. So many people in our factory still took their children at home before, and some of them simply did not come this year." He said.

Due to the reduction of employees, he recruited some workers through video, but there were still some problems. After the workers came, they were not familiar with the production rhythm of the factory, and many of them left their jobs quickly, so they had to keep recruiting new workers.

Lin Leling, chairman of Shaoxing cloth mine needle textile Co., Ltd. and Shaoxing Yuchao Knitting Technology Co., Ltd., told reporters that their company resumed work on February 28, and the epidemic situation caused the resumption of work half a month late. "There are about 100 people in the company. There was a situation that they couldn't come before, but now they are all normal."

However, the problem of manpower has been solved, and small and medium-sized textile enterprises are also facing another problem: orders.

Chen Huan received a lot of orders from customers every day. However, he found that orders were distributed to different employees, but there was a "hot and cold uneven" situation.

"In the past, almost all kinds of employees could be employed, but what we want now are skilled workers. In this way, our cost is actually reduced in the production process, because the workers' skills are improved, we can also receive more orders. In fact, there are still some orders, but it is said that they will be concentrated in the hands of some people with higher technology. " He said.

Lin Leling said that the impact of the epidemic on textile and clothing is certain, but it has a greater impact on their enterprises in the early stage. At present, the enterprises have been in normal production, but the output is reduced by 50% compared with previous years. "Now the number of front-line employees is increasing."

According to Statistics Bureau of China, from January to May this year, the total profits of Industrial Enterprises above Designated Size nationwide reached 1843.49 billion yuan, down 19.3% year-on-year, 8.1 percentage points lower than that in January April. Among them, the total profit of textile and clothing industries decreased by 10.29% compared with the same period of last year in the large and small industries.

However, compared with the situation from January to April, the total profit of the textile industry decreased by 19.8%, and that of the textile and clothing industry decreased by 34.8%.

Due to the traditional off-season and capital pressure, the industry situation is still worrying in July

However, in 2020, the small and medium-sized enterprises need to enter the traditional textile industry again, whether it is in the off-season or off-season.

1. Domestic demand: the prelude to the off-season, enterprises are under pressure

From the perspective of consumption habits and downstream replenishment time, July and August will enter the off-season, and the orders are in a state of shortage. Industry experts said that from June to September, some small and medium-sized enterprises may face the pressure of production reduction, shutdown, vacation and even closure.

2. Foreign trade: Holiday prelude, less orders

The European Union generally takes a high-temperature holiday from July to September, while France, Italy, the Netherlands and other countries have to take a month or so at least. Therefore, the export orders of the market are relatively small in July, and will increase again after August and September. Therefore, the downstream market in July is generally not optimistic. If it is fast, the market will not improve until August.

3. Production status: the market is weak and the market is insufficient

According to the survey of weaving enterprises in textile cluster, the cluster weaving market has been weakening since June. By the end of June, the average operating rate of cluster weaving enterprises is about 50%, and the utilization rate of weaving capacity is less than 40%.

Most clusters said that the operation of enterprises in June was not better than that in May. Due to the superimposed influence of epidemic situation and the arrival of traditional off-season, market demand was weak and product inventory continued to increase. There are still some problems such as lack of funds and large orders. The enterprise adjusts the production, reduces the opening, maintains the operation.

4. When the off-season comes, the shipment is limited and the production is reduced and the price is guaranteed

At present, the textile peak season in the first half of the year has basically passed. In July, there will be sporadic transaction volume in stock mentality. The price upward pressure is great, and the demand side has no obvious improvement at present. The export orders are still facing the risk of repeated epidemic situation, and the shipment is relatively limited. Therefore, it is expected that in the off-season market from July to August, if the downstream demand does not significantly improve, the enterprise may adopt the strategy of reducing production and maintaining price in the future.

In July, most textile people are still mentally prepared. After all, according to the historical situation, if there is a big market in the textile market, it usually happens in March to April and September to October, and it is not likely to happen from July to August. That is to say, under the off-season, the market will have to face the pressure of accumulated inventory, but this year's inventory pressure is too large, which may not have been encountered in the previous six years.

Therefore, it is necessary for textile workers to recognize their own position in the troubled times, consciously limit the inventory, rather than blindly produce, turn the capital into inventory, and avoid falling into a difficult situation under the pressure of competition.