Overall Decline Of Automobile Market In The First Half Of The Year?

China's commercial vehicle manufacturers have ushered in new opportunities under the guidance of the policy.

On August 8, Foton Auto Group's independent auto brand era automobile completed the delivery of the 120000 national six models. According to the data, since 2018, Foton has delivered 180000 units of national VI products.

In addition to the implementation of the six stringent emission standards in China's infrastructure industry, as well as the implementation of the six stringent emission standards, China's commercial vehicle industry is also facing a huge increase.

According to the three-year action plan for winning the blue sky defense war issued by the State Council in 2018, more than 1 million medium-sized and heavy-duty diesel trucks will be operated in Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei and surrounding areas, Fenwei plain by the end of 2020.

According to the data, by the end of 2019, 560000 medium and heavy-duty diesel trucks in key regions under national III and below emission standards have been eliminated, which is still far from the target of 1 million by the end of 2020. The phase out of national III models will become an important support for the sales of commercial vehicles, especially medium and heavy trucks, in the second half of 2020.

In fact, with the effective control of the domestic epidemic situation and the continuous promotion of automobile consumption policy, since this year, commercial vehicles have taken the lead in recovering from the epidemic, and continue to drive the sales of China's automobile market.

According to the statistics of China Automobile Industry Association, from January to June this year, automobile production and sales were 10.012 million and 10.257 million, respectively, down 16.8% and 16.9% year on year. Among them, the production and sales of passenger cars were 7.754 million and 7.873 million, down 22.5% and 22.4% year-on-year. From January to June, the production and sales of commercial vehicles were 2.359 million and 2.384 million, up 9.5% and 8.6% year-on-year.

Polarization

"Driven by various macro-economic policies, infrastructure investment policies, emission standard switching and high-speed axle charging, commercial vehicles will still maintain a substantial growth in the second half of the year, further helping the development of the pushcart market." Previously, Fu Bingfeng, executive vice president and Secretary General of China Automobile Industry Association, predicted.

Since entering the second half of the year, commercial vehicles continue the growth trend of the first half of the year, and many commercial vehicle manufacturers have handed in good report cards.

On August 10, Dongfeng company announced that it sold 65800 vehicles in July, up 52.6% year-on-year. From January to July, it sold 411300 vehicles, up 15.2% year-on-year. On August 3, Foton Motor (600166. SH) and Jiangling Motor (000550. SZ) in July showed that both the output and sales volume of the two auto enterprises had achieved double growth.

Although the overall commercial vehicle market is better, there is still internal differentiation. In the market segment of commercial vehicles, the production and sales of passenger cars decreased, while the production and sales of freight cars increased rapidly.

Among them, the performance of the most eye-catching is the heavy truck, the industry estimates that this year's elimination of the national three heavy trucks, is expected to bring about 160000 new market. According to the data released by automobile enterprises, most of the heavy truck enterprises grew by more than 50% year-on-year. FAW Jiefang sold 35300 units in July, up 90% year-on-year; Dongfeng Motor followed, with a year-on-year growth of 75%; China National Heavy Truck Co., Ltd. sold 24000 vehicles in July, with a year-on-year growth of 97%, ranking the third; while Foton Motor, which has the largest growth rate, saw a year-on-year increase of 179%.

The recovery of medium trucks is slower than that of heavy trucks. From January to June this year, the cumulative sales of medium-sized trucks were 71800, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%, and the cumulative decline narrowed month by month.

In the second quarter of this year, the sales volume of light trucks exceeded 200000 in three consecutive months, driving the cumulative sales back to the level of million vehicles in the first half of this year, with a year-on-year increase of 4.5%.

In addition, the stall economy brought fire to mini trucks. In the first half of the year, 310300 micro cards were sold, an increase of 3.67% year-on-year, of which, in June, the year-on-year growth was 76%.

In the first half of this year, the total sales volume of passenger cars decreased by 17%, which was worthy of attention. Compared with the sales volume in the first half of the past 10 years, the passenger car is in the lowest ebb in 2020, and Yutong, a leading bus enterprise, made its first loss in the first quarter in history.

Shanxi Securities pointed out in the research report that China's automobile market has basically recovered to the level of the same period last year, the sales volume of truck based enterprises has been higher than that of the same period last year, and the trend of automobile recovery is obvious. The overall competition pattern of commercial vehicles has little change, and the operating pressure of bus enterprises is still higher than that of truck enterprises.

On the one hand, the policy dividend represented by the new infrastructure still has a certain boosting effect on the sales of freight cars, especially the demand for construction trucks. In addition, the upgrading and updating of heavy truck national VI is accelerated, and commercial vehicles are expected to maintain a year-on-year increase.

On the other hand, with the normalization of epidemic prevention and control, the new demand for large and medium-sized passenger cars is insufficient, and the demand for renewal and replacement will lag behind. The replacement increment of new energy buses encouraged by the policy is difficult to support the overall demand contraction of the industry, and the sales volume of light passenger vehicles is still dropping by a large margin; as the main bus model, light passenger cars are expected to maintain a small decline year on year.

In the view of industry insiders, the overall competition pattern of commercial vehicles has not changed much, and the operating pressure of bus enterprises is still higher than that of truck enterprises. In the second half of the year, the liquidity pressure faced by bus companies such as "three dragons and one link" will rise.

Looking for a new track

Of course, the "commercial vehicle" market seems to be booming.

On June 24, the national development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Commerce issued special administrative measures for foreign investment access (negative list) (2020 Edition) and special administrative measures for foreign investment access in pilot free trade zones (negative list).

Both documents pointed out that the restriction of 50% share ratio for foreign investment in the field of commercial vehicle manufacturing should be lifted, as well as the restriction on the establishment of up to two joint ventures. The new regulations have been implemented since July 23, 2020.

In 2018, the lifting of restrictions on foreign equity ratio of new energy vehicles and the arrival of "catfish" Tesla "stirred up" China's new energy passenger vehicle market; and with the opening of the restrictions on foreign shares of commercial vehicles, it also brought a lot of uncertainties to the future domestic market competition pattern of commercial vehicles.

In fact, from GAC Hino Automobile Co., Ltd., Beijing Foton Daimler Automobile Co., Ltd., and brilliance Renault gold cup Co., Ltd., international commercial vehicle enterprises have been seeking cooperation in China in recent years.

On April 23 this year, BYD also signed a strategic business alliance agreement with Hino Automatic Vehicle Co., Ltd., focusing on the cooperative development of pure electric commercial vehicles (BEVS).

"At present, foreign capital accounts for a relatively small proportion of domestic joint venture commercial vehicle enterprises, and the market share is still controlled by independent brands, accounting for more than 95% of the market share. In the short term, it will not have any impact. However, in the long run, China's commercial vehicle market still has a relatively large space for development, and the possibility of foreign capital entering the bureau is not ruled out. " On August 9, a person familiar with the commercial vehicle market told reporters.

This year, Hyundai will become the first wholly-owned joint venture of Hyundai Motor Co., Ltd. in Sichuan, which will increase from 1% to 100% in China.

"In order to become a real player in the global market, it is a necessary strategy for modern times to enter the Chinese commercial vehicle market." Cui Hanying, vice chairman of Hyundai commercial vehicle department, once said that it is a long-standing plan for Hyundai to enter China's commercial vehicle market.

"Competition exists objectively and cannot be changed. Compared with foreign brands such as Daimler and Volvo, independent brands still have a big gap in core technologies such as intelligence and lightweight as well as high-end powertrain." "But the advantage of independent brands is that they have better adaptability in terms of manufacturing costs, supplier channels, manpower and prices," the industry said

In fact, after more than 20 years of development, China's commercial vehicle manufacturers have established a research and development, manufacturing, sales and service system covering the whole industry chain.

In addition, under the background that foreign capital may accelerate to enter, China's commercial vehicle industry is also experiencing a period of adjustment, and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles are becoming a new track for the development of China's commercial vehicle manufacturers.

"Compared with diesel heavy truck and electric heavy truck, hydrogen fuel cell heavy truck has the advantages of zero emission, heavy load and long-distance driving." Gan Yong, an academician of the Chinese Academy of engineering, predicts that by 2050, more than 50% of China's heavy trucks will be powered by hydrogen fuel cells.

On June 5, this year, Toyota announced that it would establish "United fuel cell system research and development (Beijing) Co., Ltd." jointly with yihuatong, FAW, Dongfeng Motor, BAIC and GAC, which will carry out research and development work for commercial vehicle fuel cell system in the future. (Editor: He Fang)