Continuous Improvement Of Filament Cash Flow In August

In July, the cash flow of polyester filament continued to narrow, and the cash flow deficit in the second half of the month was serious. Under the cost pressure, the willingness of enterprises to protect the price increased. From the end of July to the beginning of August, the transaction center of polyester filament fluctuated and rose, and the cash flow continued to improve. Some FDY models turned losses into profits.

Since the second quarter, the polyester filament market has been full of pessimism. Downstream users have been purchasing at low prices in the early stage, and raw material stocks are mostly around January. However, public health events at home and abroad continue to ferment, and orders from Europe and the United States are not strong. Some downstream users are forced to take high-temperature leave ahead of time. Polyester filament inventory is under pressure, and raw materials fluctuate in the same period Cash flow continues to narrow. In July, the narrowing speed of polyester filament cash flow was accelerated. After the middle of the year, most POY and FDY models suffered serious losses, and DTY profit remained low.

Fig one  2020 Profit comparison of domestic polyester filament mainstream models in

Source: Longzhong information

As shown in the figure, DTY's overall profit in July was relatively good, with an average monthly profit of 179 yuan / ton, and serious losses of POY and FDY. The average monthly profit of POY was -362.52 yuan / ton, and that of FDY was 303.82 yuan / ton. At the end of the month, with the rising price of POY, the cash flow of most DTY models also narrowed, but the overall profit level was higher than that of POY.

Fig two  2020 Comparison of monthly average profit of domestic polyester filament mainstream models in

Source: Longzhong information

In August, the price of polyester filament fluctuated and increased, and the cash flow of POY and FDY gradually improved. Up to now, some FDY models have turned losses into profits, including fdy150d / 96F cash flow of 21.25 yuan / ton. Since August, the cash flow of some DTY models has been in deficit, the profit of raw silk has been improved, and the profit of elastic silk has been continuously compressed. Therefore, although there is no sign of improvement in terminal demand at present, considering that the price of polyester filament is at a historical low point, the texturing and weaving enterprises still have the willingness to buy if there is no financial pressure. If the polyester filament enterprises have appropriate preferential sales promotion, downstream users will still consider bargain hunting.

Fig three  2017-2020 Price trend comparison of domestic polyester filament mainstream models in

Source: Longzhong information

As shown in Figure 3, taking poy150d / 48F as an example, the current price is at a historical low, and is far lower than the price level in previous years. Although the cash flow of polyester filament has been slightly improved, most varieties are still in the situation of loss. Therefore, in the short term, polyester filament enterprises are more willing to stabilize the market. At present, the overall operation of texturing, weaving, printing and dyeing industry shows a small growth trend, which gives the market some confidence support. Fabrics such as chamois fabric, chamois fabric is expected to go up in August. Therefore, in August, the probability of polyester filament disk stability is large, and cash flow may continue to improve.