Shanghai Foreign Brand "Limited Travel" Upgrade: Sales Of New Energy Vehicles In Shanghai Soared Several Times A Day

In the past weekend, Shanghai's new energy vehicle market was on fire again.

"It's all crazy!" On the evening of October 25, a person close to Tesla's sales told the 21st century economic reporter, "this morning, Tesla's single store sales exceeded 80 units!" Under normal circumstances, the sales scale of this store is 10-20 units a day.

Sales have skyrocketed several times a day - rare even for Tesla, which is now half the sky red.

However, the two-day event is not only in Tesla stores. The 21st century economic report reporter's visit and investigation found that many of the off-line auto stores were popular at the end of last week, including Weilai, which belongs to the new force of car making, and Rongwei, a brand of passenger cars of SAIC Group, a traditional automobile enterprise.

On the evening of October 25, a regional head of Rongwei brand told the reporter of 21st century economic report that Rongwei 4S shop also welcomed an endless stream of consumers. It is obvious that most of the consumers also came straight to the new energy vehicles.

The sudden boom on the front line is related to a big announcement released last weekend. On the afternoon of October 24, "Shanghai issued" the latest traffic management measures issued by the Municipal Public Security Bureau, and the "traffic restriction" Regulations of external license plates in Shanghai will be upgraded. On the one hand, from November 2, the traffic restriction time of external license plates on the inner ring viaduct will be lengthened; on the other hand, after the May Day holiday next year, the inner ring ground roads will also be opened to the public.

It will be difficult for foreign brands in Shanghai. For many consumers, purchasing new energy vehicles as soon as possible and applying for "green card" has become the most secure and fastest solution. After all, in comparison, it is more and more difficult to bid for the Shanghai brand, and the price is also rising. The basic application for the new energy vehicle license is available. According to the industry analysis, the upgrading of the lower limit line is expected to further drive the demand for new energy vehicles.

Shanghai is one of the largest consumer markets of new energy vehicles in China. According to incomplete statistics, the sales volume of new energy vehicles accounts for about 10% of the total sales in China. However, it needs to be pointed out that it is difficult to say to what extent this round of traffic restriction upgrading will increase the sales of new energy vehicles. In fact, in the past few years, "green card" has become an alternative to the auction, and the related demand for new energy vehicles has also been released to some extent. On this basis, it is difficult to assess how many consumers will switch to new energy vehicles because of the current traffic restriction upgrade.

Shanghai's new energy vehicles are hot at the weekend

On the afternoon of October 25, 21st century economic reporter came to Rongwei 4S store in a district in the north of Shanghai. There are so many people in the store that many consumers are asking about the performance, configuration and other information of each new energy vehicle, and some consumers are talking about the test drive process with the connected sales.

Seeing the reporter enter the door, a young salesman came to inquire about the demand, but after getting the reporter's reply of "I'll take a simple look", he did not hesitate to turn to another customer and introduced various new energy models under the brand for him.

"Very busy" is the intuitive feeling of this 4S store. According to what the reporter learned later, this was not the only case of the day - as introduced before, many offline car stores were so popular that they couldn't even take care of the sales.

Not only on the 25th, but in fact on the evening of the 24th, consumers have already heard the news. A Tesla sales person said that although she took the day off, she had to deal with some customer messages online because "there are so many people in the store." she has been answering wechat after dinner

A large number of customers have been forced to rush into the stores. A sales person of Roewe 4S store said that there are not many new energy vehicles in the store at present. If you order late, you may need to wait for a period of time to pick up the car. Therefore, if consumers are interested, they should "start early". The regional head of Rongwei also said, "if you want to buy from early, it may be difficult to get it in a year!"

In the case of short-term demand, however, it should not be ruled out that there is a sudden rise in demand. Although the wholesale sales of many auto companies have recovered significantly in September, and the channels are relatively abundant, for the vast majority of dealers, the landing of Shanghai's "traffic restriction" upgrade is not within the expectation of this month.

The popularity of new energy vehicles in Shanghai comes from an announcement released on Saturday afternoon.

According to the information released at about 4:00 p.m. on October 24, the official platform of Shanghai municipal government, "Shanghai release", will further expand the scope of traffic restriction for foreign license vehicles in Shanghai. First, from November 2, the working day limit for foreign licensed vehicles on the inner ring viaduct will be extended from the original 8 hours (from 7:00 to 10:00, 15:00 to 20:00) to 13 hours (7:00 to 20:00), and the second is to extend the limit on May 1 next year From 7:00 to 16:00 on the first working day, vehicles will be banned from the inner ring road during the first working day.

The upgrading of restrictions on foreign brands further enhanced the demand for Shanghai brands. It's hard for users to get up early in the rush hour, because it's too hard for users to get up at rush hours every day

There are not many choices in front of these people: either continue to take the Shanghai brand, or choose a new energy vehicle to quickly get on the "green card". In recent years, it has become more and more difficult for many people to understand why it is more and more difficult to buy a new energy brand without considering the high cost.

The data shows that in the past five years, despite the diversion of "green brand" of new energy vehicles, the bid winning rate of Shanghai brand is still not high, which is about 5% in 2015 and 10% in 2020. In terms of price, the average price of Shanghai brand was 80700 yuan in 2015, and rose to 90600 yuan in 2020. It is worth mentioning that in 2020, in order to promote automobile consumption, Shanghai has also increased the quota of 40000 Shanghai brands. If you look at the previous data in 2019, the winning rate of Shanghai brand is less than 6%, and the average price is 89600 yuan.

Early release of existing demand?

It is generally believed in the industry that this round of Shanghai's traffic restriction and upgrading policy will further enhance the sales of new energy vehicles in the local area.

An analyst of CITIC Securities pointed out that the right of way advantage is one of the logic of the development of domestic new energy vehicle industry, and Shanghai's new regulations will obviously strengthen the right of way advantage of new energy vehicles and further boost the sales of new energy vehicles in Shanghai.

Song Tingting, an analyst with Shenwan Hongyuan securities, also said that the supply factors that suppress the price of license plates will disappear next year. It is expected that the price of Shanghai brand will rise significantly next year. The impact of this adjustment on foreign licensed passenger cars resident in Shanghai is more direct and obvious.

So, to what extent will the administrative policy of Shanghai's upgrading limit drive the sales of new energy vehicles in Shanghai? The numbers given in the above analysis are 100000 and 80000-130000 respectively. The latter is calculated based on the current penetration rate of new energy vehicles, assuming that 5% - 8% of the demand is forced to switch to new energy vehicles every year. According to the annual report on comprehensive transportation operation of Shanghai in 2019, there are 1.674 million passenger cars of other provinces and cities resident in Shanghai.

However, in recent years, the "green brand" of new energy vehicles has always been a substitute for the Shanghai brand. It is difficult for consumers who have purchased new energy vehicles since the introduction of the new deal whether they have bought new energy vehicles because of the aggravation of traffic restrictions. An automobile business person of a large consulting enterprise told our reporter that the impact of the new deal on the sales volume of new energy vehicles must be positive, but the actual conversion still needs to open the approximate structure of 1.674 million vehicles for analysis.

According to the characteristics of the consumers who are eager to buy cars in the past two days, there are mainly two categories: one is that the use of new energy vehicles has been significantly affected, but it can not be solved in a short time because of the difficulty in shooting Shanghai brand; the other is that they have planned to buy new energy vehicles before, but they have not made up their minds due to various reasons.

To some extent, the new sales of new energy vehicles in the near future are the early release of existing demand. Another worry is that the license plate of new energy vehicles will be tightened in Shanghai one day?

At the same time, the number of users randomly interviewed by the reporter did not propose to replace fuel vehicles with new energy vehicles to obtain the "green license". Some people said that they would continue to try to win the Shanghai brand, because the new energy vehicles still have "limited choices, no value preservation and inconvenient"; others said that they could not accept the temporary change of vehicles psychologically, and planned to wait until "there was no way" to make plans.

(the driving force of the new deal on the sales of new energy vehicles) the evaluation dimension can be based on the number of foreign brand vehicles in Shanghai for a long time, to see what proportion is the daily just need travel needs, and what alternative options are available for these foreign brand owners, such as buying fuel vehicles, buying new energy vehicles, and choosing public transportation

The above-mentioned people said that the main thing is to see what proportion of commuters just need to use cars. Among the 1.674 million foreign license vehicles in Shanghai, such as those with Jiangsu and Zhejiang license plates, they don't drive them very much at ordinary times. They only drive them on weekends or when they go back to their hometown. Then they will not have a strong demand for new energy vehicles immediately.