Profit A Pig Is Equal To 2 Bottles Of Maotai Liquor. How Long Is The Bonus Period Of Pig Breeding?

Recently, after the implementation of the pig embargo policy in six provinces and regions of central and southern China, the situation of pig supply shortage in South China has further intensified. According to CCTV, pork prices have fluctuated frequently in recent years, with a significant rebound in many places. There is a view that the pig cycle may be out of order.

Generally speaking, it takes about 5-6 years for a complete cycle of rise and fall of pork price, and the period of price rise is about 2 years. This round of pig cycle started in 2018, and the price of pig has been soaring continuously, which is known as "the strongest pig cycle in history". According to the theory, the two-year price rise period has come to an end, but the price is still rising at present. Market treasure estimates that this week, the profit of self breeding and self rearing pigs in the whole country is 1945 yuan / head, an increase of 291 yuan / head compared with last week. Many investors claim that one pig is equal to the profit of two bottles of Maotai liquor.

Zheng Fengtian, vice president of the school of agriculture and rural development of Renmin University of China, analyzed that the pig cycle was only a general change in operation. The production capacity was severely damaged by the African plague, and it only recovered to 80% and 90% by the end of this year. This is one of the main reasons for the high price. Zheng Fengtian thinks that it may continue to maintain a high fluctuation trend even next year.

Visible profits, let the pig industry stand on the wind. "In the past year or more, more than 1000 cross-border pig raising enterprises came from real estate alone." At an industry conference held not long ago, Liu Yonghao, chairman of new hope group, disclosed that in recent years, Internet, real estate and other enterprises have also entered the pig industry, "everyone gathers firewood and the flame is high", and the ability level of the pig industry will be improved, "this is a good thing".

Selling houses is better than raising pigs?

"It's earned this year." Liu Heng (pseudonym) used to be a farmer in a county of Jiangxi Province. He suffered serious losses due to African swine fever in 2018, but continued to persist in 2019. Taking advantage of this wave of market, he has filled in the loss and made a lot of profits in the second half of this year.

Since the second half of 2019, pig prices have risen rapidly. Data from the Ministry of Commerce show that in May 2019, the wholesale price of white streaked pigs was still around 20 yuan / kg, and in November, it reached a record high of more than 50 yuan / kg.

"In the first half of this year, the price of pig dropped a little. In the second half of this year, especially after November, the price began to rise again. Recently, due to the pig embargo policy, pig prices in Jiangxi and other southern provinces have increased again." Liu Heng said.

On December 7, muyuan shares announced that in November, the company sold 2.076 million pigs, with sales revenue of 5.078 billion yuan. Among them, 87000 pigs were sold to muyuan meat, a wholly-owned subsidiary. In November, the average selling price of the company's commercial pigs was 26.32 yuan / kg, down 4.81% from October. In the first and second half of November, the overall trend was volatile, and the pig price showed an upward trend in the last ten days.

According to the latest data of the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas, in the 47th week of 2020 (November 23-27), the weekly average value of the total ex factory price index of lean meat white streaked pork in 16 provinces (municipalities directly under the central government) was 37.43 yuan per kilogram, up 1.6% month on month. On December 4, the average price of pork in the national agricultural wholesale market was 41.79 yuan / kg, up 0.9% over December 3.

In addition, according to the calculation of the third quarter report of muyuan shares, the profit of each pig of muyuan is more than 1700 yuan. Shareholders claim that one pig is equal to the profit of two bottles of Maotai liquor. This has also attracted a large number of cross-border real estate developers.

It is understood that Wanda, Evergrande, Biguiyuan and Vanke have all started pig raising mode. For example, on May 7, the recruitment program of Vanke released an open recruitment. There were five social recruitment positions, including pig farm development manager, general manager of settlement pig farm and veterinarian, which were subordinate to the food business department. "Vanke pig raising" makes the market realize that in recent years, capital has gradually entered the Bureau, and pig raising has become a large scale.

In fact, under the epidemic situation this year, the real estate industry has been greatly impacted. The overstocking caused by the excessive stock and the high asset liability ratio of enterprises have led to the plight of the real estate industry, and the sales data of many real estate companies are not optimistic. On December 3, the official website of China Trust Industry Association released the main business data of trust companies at the end of the third quarter of 2020. At the end of the third quarter, financing trust decreased by 7.71% month on month, and the balance of funds invested in the real estate sector has decreased for five consecutive quarters.

Zheng Fengtian pointed out that real estate developers are also facing a pressure to reduce the weak growth momentum and high risk brought by single industry through diversified operation.

In addition to the high degree of cross-border attention, pig breeding leading enterprises are also actively layout. It is understood that after the African swine fever, muyuan shares began a more active layout.

Last year, the annual salary of 100 million shares of Qinmu animal husbandry Co., Ltd. was launched, and the annual salary of 100 million people was 100 million. Starting from 2019, new hope also borrows heavily to expand its breeding pig resources, and its capital expenditure will increase significantly in 2019. In 2018, the company paid 3.707 billion yuan in cash for the purchase and construction of fixed assets, intangible assets and other long-term assets. In 2019, the capital expenditure rose to 9.346 billion yuan. By the end of the first half of 2020, the company's amount reached 15.014 billion yuan, continuing to expand aggressively.

How long is the bonus?

From the past experience, we should reach the end of the pig cycle, but the price of pig is rising. Zhang Lili, senior analyst of Zhuo Chuang information, told the 21st century economic reporter that the core of the pig cycle is the relationship between supply and demand.

It is understood that different from other industries, there is an obvious cycle in pig breeding industry, which is called "pig cycle". The cycle track is generally: high meat price, large increase of sow stock, increase of pig supply; decrease of meat price, large number of eliminated sows, loss of farmers and enterprises, decrease of pig supply and rise of meat price.

China is a big country of pork consumption. The consumption of pork has been stable in China, which is more than 50 million tons, 600-700 million pigs, and tens of billions of market scale. Pork is a product of repeated consumption in China.

Under the double epidemic situation of African swine fever and new crown epidemic, the supply of live pigs was directly affected, the pig cycle fluctuated greatly and lasted for a long time, and the pig production capacity expanded rapidly and vigorously.

It is understood that the leading pig enterprises, such as muyuan shares, Zhengbang technology, Wenshi shares and new hope, have also expressed their intention to increase their sales volume in 2021. According to incomplete statistics of 21st century economic report, the cumulative target of the above-mentioned four enterprises will reach 130 million next year.

The above-mentioned cross-border pig raising real estate enterprises are also increasing pig production capacity expansion, which is significantly higher than that in previous cycles. According to the Ministry of agriculture, as of October, 13000 new scale pig farms have been put into operation this year, and another 15000 pig farms that were empty last year began to be reared.

The Ministry of agriculture and rural areas predicted that in the second quarter of next year, the national pig inventory will basically return to the level of normal years.

However, Liu Heng told the 21st century economic reporter that they still don't have a clear idea about the industry next year. Affected by the African swine plague, domestic dual breeding pigs are seriously insufficient. Some breeding enterprises keep and backcross some commercial generation Sanyuan pigs with better reproductive performance as binary breeding pigs, and the reproductive performance of Sanyuan breeding sows drops sharply. Under this influence, although experts We predict that the stock of breeding sows will recover to 90%, but it is uncertain whether the pig output will return to 90% by the end of next year.

An industry person who has been tracking the pig market for a long time pointed out to the reporter of the 21st century economic report that under the double restrictions of the quantity and quality of sows that can be reproduced, the production capacity still needs to be released for a certain period of time. Besides large enterprises, many small and medium-sized farmers are slow to resume their production due to capital and epidemic situation. With the increase of breeding costs and epidemic prevention costs, the supply of live pigs in 2021 may not be as expected, There will still be a supply gap.

According to the data of the Ministry of agriculture, the cost of a commercial pig in October was 1850 yuan, an increase of 260 yuan compared with that before the outbreak of African swine fever. Among them, the rising price of corn increased the cost of feed by 80 yuan, the cost of epidemic prevention by 130 yuan, and the cost of sewage treatment by 50 yuan.

There are views in the industry that the bonus period of pig breeding may be 1-2 years.