China'S Photovoltaic Industry: Three Key Words In 2020, What Are The Challenges Of 2021?

With China's "3060" carbon emission target, renewable energy represented by wind power and photovoltaic ushered in certain development space. Towards the end of the year, "big gift package" will come again. On December 12, President Xi Jinping announced the target of China's total installed capacity of wind power and photovoltaic power by 2030 at the climate ambition conference. The installed capacity of more than 1.2 billion kilowatts has injected a strong heart into the industry. Affected by this, the A-share photovoltaic plate has risen sharply, and the market value of many leading enterprises has reached a record high.

In fact, this year is an aggressive year for China's photovoltaic industry. At the end of the 13th five year plan, after years of large-scale development, photovoltaic industry has become one of the few strategic emerging industries with leading advantages in the world.

China's photovoltaic industry will play an increasingly important role in the high-quality development of renewable energy in the future under the world's first industrial scale, manufacturing and R & D level.

After the "May 31 policy" in 2018, to the bottom of the industry demand in 2019, and then to the impact of this year's epidemic, China's photovoltaic industry "Phoenix Nirvana". However, with the rapid development of China's photovoltaic industry, there are still some problems in the industry chain, such as the uncoordinated upstream and downstream of the industry chain, inadequate power consumption, immature power trading, etc., which have become the opening year of the "fourteenth five year plan" in 2021, and all parties in the industry need to jointly study and solve these problems.

After years of large-scale development, photovoltaic industry has become one of the few strategic emerging industries with leading advantages in the world. Visual China

Key words of photovoltaic industry in 2020

This year, the sudden outbreak of the new crown has brought a certain impact on the photovoltaic industry. However, it is gratifying that China's photovoltaic industry has shown great resilience. Since the second quarter, the whole industry has rapidly entered a restorative growth trend. According to the statistics of China Photovoltaic Industry Association, in the first three quarters of this year, the manufacturing end of photovoltaic industry maintained growth: the output of polycrystalline silicon materials was 290000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 18.9%; the output of silicon wafers was 115gw, with a year-on-year increase of 15.7%; the output of solar cells was 93gw, with a year-on-year increase of 13.1%; and the output of modules was 80gw, with a year-on-year increase of 6.7%. In the first three quarters, China's newly installed photovoltaic power generation capacity was 18.7gw, an increase of about 17% compared with the same period last year.

Looking back on the whole period of the 13th five year plan, China's photovoltaic industry from the manufacturing end to the application end, the industry scale doubled, the cost of each link decreased steadily, and the photoelectric efficiency increased rapidly. Under the boom of industry prosperity, the concept of photovoltaic has become a favorite in the secondary market. A new energy analyst summarized the performance of this year's A-share PV sector, told the 21st century economic reporter, "PV can definitely be selected as a hot concept in this year's A-share market. With the visible certainty of the industry's growth and the overall valuation of the sector is still at a reasonable level, the next year's PV sector is still worth looking forward to."

Key words 1: 100 billion market value

On December 23, when the share price of sunshine power exceeded 69 yuan, the third photovoltaic company with a market value of 100 billion yuan was born. Before that, Longji shares and Tongwei shares have become two "giant elephants" of A-share photovoltaic plate. Among them, Longji shares also hit a new high on December 23, with a total market value of 352.8 billion yuan.

This year, the A-share PV sector has produced a number of companies with a market value of 100 billion, which is an epitome of the concept of photovoltaic being chased by funds in the secondary market. According to the statistics of 21st century economic reporter, as of December 25, the share prices of 15 listed companies in the A-share photovoltaic sector have doubled this year. Jinlang technology and sunshine power supply have increased by more than 580%.

According to the research report released by Shanxi Securities Research Institute, the total market value of A-share photovoltaic sector reached about 1366.9 billion yuan at the end of November, accounting for 1.63% of all a shares, up 0.42% over the beginning of the year. The agency believes that the top companies in the photovoltaic industry have enjoyed a good rise since the beginning of the year, and they are all leading enterprises in various sub fields. And at present, the dynamic P / E ratio of PV sector is still at a reasonable level relative to the median valuation in recent five years.

The increase of plate weight is the proof that the photovoltaic industry has been recognized by capital this year; and the market value of leading enterprises has reached new highs, which is also the confirmation of the continuous improvement of the concentration of the photovoltaic industry.

Key words 2: rising prices

The performance of photovoltaic panel in the secondary market is closely related to the fundamentals of the industry. Although the overall growth rate of the photovoltaic industry this year ranked first in the A-share industry, it has also experienced two adjustments: the first time, affected by the epidemic situation in the first quarter of this year, the photovoltaic plate appeared a correction; in the second, in the third quarter, the price of photovoltaic materials with polysilicon materials first and a variety of auxiliary materials entered the price rise period, resulting in pressure on downstream photovoltaic manufacturers and stock price adjustment.

The 21st century economic reporter found that throughout the year, the prices of silicon wafers, batteries, modules and other photovoltaic main materials fell compared with the beginning of the year. And polysilicon material, photovoltaic glass and other materials rose sharply in the second half of the year. Up to now, the price of polysilicon material remains high, and the price of photovoltaic glass is firm.

The rising price tide of photovoltaic materials makes downstream enterprises, especially module manufacturers, miserable. "The current 'pain' of component enterprises has not been relieved." A member of a domestic front-line component enterprise told the 21st century economic report that by the end of the year, component enterprises need to consider material stocking and other issues, but at present, most of the component material prices remain high, and considering the Spring Festival factors, it is bound to affect the start of construction in the next two months.

In fact, this year's rising price tide in the photovoltaic industry chain has accelerated the construction demand of vertical integration mode for many component enterprises. Qian Jing, vice president of Jingke energy, said in an interview with the 21st century economic reporter that component enterprises should consider future strategies as appropriate, from pursuing market share to moderately improving their own vertical integration degree to cope with the "neck sticking" problem of price rise in the industrial chain.

However, there are also views that the promotion of vertical integration will make the profit level of each link of the main industrial chain return to a more mediocre level, which is a "strategy and behavior of value destruction". But in the view of the new team of Anxin securities and power, "deep vertical integration is to make the probability of survival of enterprises greater, not die faster. If an enterprise can't guarantee its short-term survival, then the long-term sustainability and the debate about value creation or value destruction are empty talks. "

Key words 3: size competition

As an industry leading the world in technology research and development, China's photovoltaic industry has a boom in technology research and development every year. In this year, the research and development of hjt (heterojunction) and n-type TOPCON technologies have made breakthroughs. However, the discussion on who will become the next generation battery technology is not lively because the dividend of single crystal perc technology is not "sunset", and various enterprises are also in an orderly layout. But another debate this year has been over the size of silicon wafers.

From June this year, seven photovoltaic enterprises, such as Longji, Jingao technology and Jinke energy, jointly proposed the size standard of m10mm (edge distance: 182mm). In December, eight leading enterprises, including Trina Solar, Dongfang Risheng, Zhonghuan and Tongwei, issued the joint initiative on promoting 210mm silicon wafer and module size standardization in photovoltaic industry. At present, it is about large-scale module products There is a division.

However, some people in the industry pointed out that the size dispute is actually a "pseudo proposition". The biggest proposition in the photovoltaic industry is always the improvement of the photoelectric conversion efficiency of the whole system, rather than the size of modules, silicon chips and batteries.

"The competition of size is actually the competition of market share." Some analysts pointed out to the reporter of the 21st century economic report that no matter the size is 182 or 210, there is no doubt that behind the "momentum" is a quick step.

In 2021, the photovoltaic industry will still face supply chain pressure

2021 is the first year of the 14th five year plan, and it is also the key year for China's photovoltaic industry to enter the low price network. According to a recent report by China Energy daily, relevant people from the national energy administration have confirmed that China has set a target of adding 120 million kilowatts of new wind power and photovoltaic capacity in 2021. This goal is in line with industry expectations.

During the "14th five year plan" period, the new installed capacity of China's photovoltaic industry will be much higher than that of the "13th five year plan", which makes the industry full of expectations for the development of the industry. An analyst who did not want to be named told the 21st century economic news that "during the 14th Five Year Plan period, there should be no problem for China's newly added photovoltaic capacity of 70gw to 90gw annually."

However, there is no doubt that there is room for industry development, but challenges follow. At the "2020 China photovoltaic industry annual conference", Ren Yuzhi, deputy director of the new energy department of the state energy administration, said that in the face of the rapid development of photovoltaic power generation, how to continuously reduce the cost, how to further integrate into the power system and how to successfully participate in the power market will be the common thinking of China's photovoltaic industry.

How to integrate into the power system and participate in the power market, these two major issues need to be solved by all parties except photovoltaic enterprises, which is not a one-day effort. However, in 2021, when the era of affordable access to the grid is likely to start next year, the continuous decline of photovoltaic power generation costs and investment costs will be visible in the short term. However, "obstacles" looming, photovoltaic raw material supply pressure is still in.

On December 23 and 24, Trina Solar issued two announcements on expansion of production, planning to build 8.5gw and 8GW high-efficiency silicon wafer photovoltaic cell projects with annual production capacity of 8.5gw and 8GW respectively in Yancheng Economic Development Zone and Suqian Economic and Technological Development Zone, with a total investment of about 7.4 billion yuan. Prior to this, Trina Solar signed procurement and R & D agreements with shangcnc, Daquan new energy and Kaisheng technology on single crystal silicon chip, polycrystalline silicon material and glass.

According to the statistics of the 21st century economic reporter, in order to ensure the smooth progress of the expansion project, leading enterprises such as Longji Co., Ltd. and Trina Solar Energy Co., Ltd. have locked in the raw materials for photovoltaic production through long single form. In particular, in terms of silicon materials, according to media statistics, since the beginning of the year, Longji, Trina Solar energy, Jinke energy and other enterprises have signed orders for polysilicon materials with a total price of more than 44 billion yuan. Wang Ge, the new chief analyst of CITIC, recently told the media that in the photovoltaic industry chain, it is expected that the supply of polysilicon material enterprises will be tight next year.

Polycrystalline silicon material is an important raw material for photovoltaic products. However, according to public information, in 2021, the new capacity of polysilicon material manufacturers is limited, and the production capacity should be put into production as early as the second quarter of next year.

According to the statistics of Societe Generale Securities, the nominal capacity of polysilicon materials in China's photovoltaic industry will reach 760000 tons by the end of next year, but the effective capacity will only increase by 50000 tons. "A number of enterprises have locked in the supply of silicon materials through long-term orders. At present, 79% of the silicon material production capacity has been locked by the long-term cooperation, which further verifies the shortage of supply." According to the analysis of the agency, photovoltaic demand will remain strong in 2021, and polysilicon material is a "strategic material", which is the most urgent link.

Another material that cannot be ignored is photovoltaic glass. Morgan Stanley recently published a report predicting that the photovoltaic glass industry will add 17200 tons of new production capacity next year. However, with the recovery of the world and the carbon neutral target set by the world government, the demand for photovoltaic glass will increase greatly at the same time, so the supply is expected to be tight next year.