Market Analysis: Textile Raw Materials Fall, Cotton Shocks Downward

According to statistics, on March 23, the average price of domestic lint spot market was 15786 yuan / ton, down 3.09% month on month and 36.84% higher than the same period last year. From March 22 to March 26, the maximum price of Xinjiang cotton was 16265 yuan / ton (equivalent to standard grade 3128b), down 122 yuan / ton compared with the previous week. As of the 23rd, the average price of national cotton price B index, which represents the market price of standard grade lint in the mainland, was 15753 yuan / ton, down 3.2% month on month.

According to the latest customs data, from January to February, China imported 690000 tons of cotton, an increase of 68.3% over the same period of last year. In the year of 20 / 21, the cumulative import was 1.66 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 102.4%. According to icac3's global production and demand forecast, the global consumption in 20 / 21 is 24.46 million tons, the output is expected to be 24.2 million tons, and the final inventory is 21.11 million tons. March of the Ministry of rural areas: output of 5.91 million tons, import of 2.2 million tons, consumption of 8.1 million tons, and ending inventory of 7.34 million tons.

During the high-level dialogue between China and the United States last week, there were big differences in negotiations and pessimistic about cotton trade expectations. The United States is the largest cotton exporter, while China is the largest cotton consumer. Moreover, due to the influence of US dollar's high in many aspects, the cotton of ice period is under the pressure of the market, and the trend is not optimistic in the short term.

With the decline of cotton price, the mentality of downstream yarn enterprises slows down, and the market demand tends to be rational. In the first and middle of March, Zhengzhou cotton made a continuous downward breakthrough and the domestic and imported cotton prices in Guangdong, Jiangsu and Zhejiang light textile markets fell by 500-1000 yuan / ton. In addition, it was more difficult for garment and foreign trade companies to accept new orders due to the sharp rise of raw materials and RMB fluctuation. The inquiry and purchase of cotton yarn and polyester cotton yarn of textile mills, fabrics and textile and clothing enterprises slowed down significantly compared with January / February.

The market is not confident about the recovery of consumption in March and April. It was originally march in the peak textile season. Due to the sharp rise in the cost of raw materials in the early stage, enterprises are cautious in receiving orders. In recent years, textile raw materials have different decreases. The port cotton inventory is at a high level and is in a continuous rising state. In addition, the supply of imported cotton increases greatly from January to February in 2021, and the supply of cotton market is in an abundant state. Cotton market is expected to be short-term shocks in the future.