Giants Compete For Power Circuit: There Will Be A Battle In The 100 Billion Market

At the first "ESG Global Leaders Summit" held at the end of August this year, Zhao Dong, director and Deputy Secretary of the Party group of Sinopec, once again stressed the group's determination to transform into an integrated energy service provider of "oil, gas, hydrogen and electricity".

A quantitative target under the grand ambition is that Sinopec will speed up the network layout of charging and replacing power stations, and the number of charging and replacing power stations will reach 5000 by 2025.

21st century economic reporter noted that as early as April this year, the oil and gas giant had announced the above plan. On the list of partners, Weilai automobile and Aodong new energy appeared.

The two companies are also keen competitors on the circuit.

At the first energy day held in July this year, Weilai automobile announced the layout plan of NiO power2025 power station. It is planned to lay out more than 4000 power stations worldwide by the end of 2025; Cai Dongqing, chairman of Aodong new energy, announced at a seminar in May this year that the greater goal of completing the construction of 10000 replacement power stations within five years.

The new "catfish" ambition is not small. Since March this year, GCL Energy Technology Co., Ltd., a listed company of GCL group, recently announced the construction number of power stations during the "14th five year plan": 6000.

Behind the competition of giants, the rise of a 100 billion market scale racetrack has become unstoppable. Lu Rixin, an analyst at Dongfang securities, estimates that by 2025, the market size of China's power station operation end will reach 263.1 billion yuan.

A hundred billion racetrack

The domestic power station market has been ready to develop.

According to the statistics of China electric charging infrastructure promotion alliance, from January to July 2021, the number of power exchange stations in China has rapidly increased from 306 to 763, with a significant development momentum. In terms of the development status of provinces and cities, Beijing, Guangdong, Zhejiang, Jiangsu and Shanghai rank first, with 221, 116, 73, 50 and 45 respectively.

At present, the competition pattern among four parties in the domestic power exchange station market has appeared: Automobile Enterprises represented by Weilai automobile, battery manufacturers represented by Ningde times and SK, large central enterprises represented by State Grid and Sinopec, and third-party service providers represented by Aodong new energy and Hangzhou bertan. Among them, the representatives of the third-party service providers and automobile enterprises split up almost all the market shares - Aodong new energy, Weilai automobile and Hangzhou bertan City occupy the top three, accounting for 45%, 41% and 14% respectively.

The 21st century economic reporter has noticed that the power exchange technology is not a new technology. In the past decade, the electricity exchange industry has gone through several stages.

Li Yujun, general manager of the mobile energy business department of GCL energy technology, told the reporter of the 21st century economic report, "In the first stage, that is, in 2007, BP company led the power exchange mode and cooperated with Renault company to carry out power exchange promotion; in the second stage, in 2012, the power exchange mode of passenger cars led by State Grid and the cooperation with Zhongtai Automobile Co., Ltd. were carried out in the standard box mode; in the third stage, from 2015 to 2018, BAIC and Weilai launched markets in the public market and private market respectively At this time, the cost of the battery has been greatly reduced, the cycle life has been improved and the economy has been greatly improved. However, in this period, the power exchange mode has not been supported by the government because it only serves one vehicle enterprise and cannot be shared. Unlike the charging mode, there are pile construction subsidies and operation subsidies. In the fourth stage, since 2019, the Ministry of industry and information technology has begun to encourage the pilot of power exchange mode, in terms of policies, regulations and standards To eliminate obstacles in the promotion of power exchange mode. "

In fact, in the process of industrial development in the past decade, the promotion of power exchange mode has been faced with obstacles such as high battery cost, inconsistent battery standards and unclear safety standards.

The company history of Aodong new energy also confirms the long time from the emergence to promotion of the power exchange mode. According to the public information, in 2000, the company began to explore the power exchange technology, and it was not until 10 years later that it operated in a commercial mode at the Guangzhou Asian Games for the first time. Even so, the prelude of large-scale business promotion of Aodong new energy started in 2018. This year, the company launched the "one hundred cities and one thousand stations" plan for nationwide promotion.

Fortunately, in recent years, with the help of policies, the difficulties faced by the power exchange mode have been gradually broken through, and the conditions for building a sound ecological environment for power exchange have taken shape.

In an interview with the 21st century economic report reporter, Li Yujun stressed: "in 2020, the state proposes the safety technical standard for replacing the tram type. At the same time, changing the tram type can realize the separation of vehicle and electricity. Two invoices will be issued to solve the separation problem in the property law. As of 2021, the whole country's car factories will launch the tram replacement model, which represents the industry to reach an agreement on the mode of power exchange."

It is worth mentioning that the development of domestic power exchange market will accelerate significantly in 2021.

In April 2021, the first national standard "safety requirements for electric vehicle swapping" was issued and implemented in November this year. This standard strengthens the safety requirements of mechanical strength, electrical safety, environmental adaptability and other aspects of electric vehicles to ensure the safety of electric vehicles.

In the second half of this year, the Ministry of industry and information technology of the people's Republic of China and the energy administration carried out pilot work on the application of new energy vehicle power exchange mode.

In addition, the China Automobile Industry Association recently solicited opinions on the group standard of "construction code for shared power exchange station of electric passenger vehicles". In the future, it plans to realize the sharing of power exchange platform and even power exchange device, and realize preliminary data access and interconnection. From the perspective of vehicle, battery pack and power exchange equipment linkage, we will promote the development of power exchange towards more convenient, safe and large-scale, and further reduce the cost.

Policy support superimposed industrial linkage makes the circuit more and more lively, and entrants constantly appear.

In January this year, Shandong Weida announced that Kunshan swarp Intelligent Equipment Co., Ltd., the company's holding subsidiary, and Zhejiang zeneng Electric Vehicle Technology Co., Ltd. signed a strategic cooperation framework agreement to jointly expand the market for automatic power exchange of new energy vehicles.

In May, Shuangjie Electric said on the investor interaction platform that its products can meet the construction and operation requirements of various users for charging and replacing power stations, and has been officially supplied to the outside world. At present, the company has technical reserves in the power exchange industry.

Recently, HKUST intelligent has also made an intensive statement. It has independently developed and has the technology of heavy truck power exchange. The power exchange station supports vehicles to repeatedly change power in different periods of time.

Recently, the momentum of GCL energy technology is a little fierce.

Since March this year announced to enter the field of power exchange, the company has made frequent moves in new business since September. On September 1, the signing ceremony of GCL energy technology's "ten cities and 100 stations" power exchange project was held; On September 3, the Company re signed strategic cooperation, and will cooperate with Hunan Automobile Changsha and xingbida, affiliated to Sany group, in the fields of heavy truck products, power station replacement products and new products.

The profit model of power station replacement is still a hot topic in the industry. ICphoto

Magic and imagination of changing electricity

With the large-scale delivery of new energy vehicles, the lagging development of energy supplement industry is becoming more and more obvious. In this context, various industrial supporting measures based on energy supplement have been introduced in turn, and the power exchange mode has been paid more and more attention and attracted all kinds of players.

How magical is the magic of the circuit? One example is the reactivation of the value of GCL's capital market.

For a long time after the "backdoor" listing in 2019, the company has not received much attention in the A-share market.

It's not hard to guess why. At that time, the main impression of GCL to the outside world was not based on the business scope of gas turbine cogeneration and power generation. At best, wind power projects will be gradually promoted, so that they can also be imbued with the concept of new energy. But there is no shortage of such power generation enterprises in the A-share market.

Compared with the other listed companies under GCL group, GCL Nengke is not the most profitable but also the most stable subsidiary. But in the past few years, the company's lack of business imagination space makes it difficult to escape the "Curse" of the stock price downturn.

Until March this year, new story content was injected into GCL energy technology. After aiming at the power exchange track, the capital market's value perception of the company has been greatly improved: since the announcement of the mobile energy strategy, the stock price of GCL Energy Co., Ltd. has increased by more than 80%; In just a few months, its total market value once exceeded 20 billion yuan.

The capital market is not blindly hyped about the concept of power exchange.

After the announcement of the 10 billion scale carbon neutral industry investment fund jointly launched with CICC capital in March, the shares of GCL Energy Technology Co., Ltd. gained trading limits, but soon returned to calm.

The real outbreak was in August. Over the past month, the stock price of GCL energy technology has risen by more than 70%. This also means that the capital market has only recently recognized the imaginative space of the company's electricity exchange business.

The market potential of the power exchange mode is based on the growing investment of new energy vehicle enterprises for the convertible tram type.

According to data released by Dongfang securities, the current number of new energy vehicles exceeds 6.7 million, and it is expected to reach 8.24 million by the end of this year. However, since 2021, the change of tram type will continue to increase. It is estimated that the sales volume will account for 30% in 2025 and 60% in 2030.

Based on this, the agency estimates that in 2025, the number of domestic exchange stations is expected to reach 22000, the scale of operation market is expected to reach 263.1 billion yuan, and the market for equipment of power station is expected to reach 69.3 billion yuan.

It is worth noting that although the market space is broad, the profit model of the power station is still the focus of discussion in the industry.

From the investment side, the investment in power station replacement is mainly concentrated in three aspects: power station equipment, line investment and battery investment. At present, the investment amount of passenger car to power station single station is about 5.007 million yuan, and that of heavy truck is about 10.151 million yuan.

From the revenue side, the revenue of power station is divided into single battery charge and power change times.

21st century economic reporter found that it is the consensus of some new players that commercial vehicles should switch to this track.

A person in the industry told the 21st century economic report: "heavy truck power exchange is more suitable for the scope of investment mode. With a stable transport capacity scenario and suitable cooperation mode, it can quickly enter and stably land."

Xu TingYang, chief engineer of GCL energy group, also told reporters of the 21st century economic report that "the company has jointly promoted and developed passenger cars and commercial vehicles. But in the early stage, it will take commercial vehicles as a breakthrough point and seize the market opportunities."

According to the analysis of Dongfang securities, the break even point of passenger car swap station corresponds to the utilization rate of about 20%. With the increase of utilization rate, the profitability leaps; The break even point of heavy truck swapping station corresponds to 23% utilization rate. Since the heavy truck to power station is usually a fixed scenario, and the frequency of heavy truck power exchange is higher than that of passenger car, the profitability of heavy truck swap station is slightly better than that of passenger car.

A hundred billion blue ocean has emerged, and the battle for it has begun.

(Intern Qi Tianyi also contributed to this paper.)