National Bureau Of Statistics: China'S Purchasing Managers Index Fell In November

On November 30, 2022, the service industry survey center of the National Bureau of statistics and the China Federation of logistics and purchasing released the China purchasing manager index. In this regard, the National Bureau of Statistics Service Industry Survey Center Senior Statistician Zhao Qinghe has carried on the interpretation.

In November, affected by multiple factors such as frequent outbreaks of domestic epidemic and more complex and severe international environment, China's purchasing manager index fell. Among them, the manufacturing purchasing manager index, non manufacturing business activity index and comprehensive PMI output index were 48.0%, 46.7% and 47.1%, respectively, which were 1.2%, 2.0 and 1.9 percentage points lower than that of the previous month, and China's economic prosperity level generally fell.

1、 Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index down

In November, the PMI of the manufacturing industry dropped to 48.0%, which was below the critical point for two consecutive months, and the downward pressure on the manufacturing industry increased.

（1） Both sides of production and demand continued to slow down. In November, the epidemic had a negative impact on the production and operation of some enterprises, with production activities slowing down and product orders decreasing. The production index was 47.8%, down 1.8 percentage points from the previous month, and continued to be below the critical point; The index of new orders was 46.4%, 1.7 percentage points lower than that of the previous month. Among them, the index of new export orders was 46.7%, down 0.9 percentage points from the previous month. The manufacturing production and domestic and foreign market demand fell. At the same time, the supplier delivery time index dropped to 46.7%. Some survey enterprises reported that due to poor logistics transportation and production activities of upstream and downstream enterprises and other factors, supplier delivery time lag and customer orders decreased.

（2） The price index fell. The purchasing price index of main raw materials was 50.7%, which was 2.6 percentage points lower than that of the previous month, and the overall level of purchasing prices of manufacturing raw materials narrowed; The ex factory price index was 47.4%, lower than 1.3% of the previous month, and the overall level of product ex factory prices continued to fall. From the industry situation, affected by the factors of low market demand, the two price indexes of petroleum coal and other fuel processing, chemical fiber and rubber plastic products, ferrous metal smelting and calendering processing industries with the production of basic raw materials as the main raw materials dropped significantly; The two price indexes of agricultural and sideline food processing, nonferrous metal smelting and calendering processing industries are still at the high level of above 55.0%.

（3） PMI of enterprises of different sizes fell down. The PMI of large, medium and small enterprises were 49.1%, 48.1% and 45.6%, respectively, 1.0%, 0.8% and 2.6 percentage points lower than the last month, all lower than the critical point. The results of the survey show that the proportion of large, medium and small enterprises that reflect tension and insufficient market demand has increased. Among them, the proportion of small enterprises is 46.0% and 58.8%, respectively, which is 0.8% and 1.9% higher than that of the previous month, and the production and operation pressure of small enterprises is greater.

（4） The market is expected to fluctuate more. The expected index of production and operation activities was 48.9%, 3.7 percentage points lower than that of the previous month, and the manufacturing market was expected to fall. From the perspective of industry, the expected production and operation indexes of textile, chemical raw materials and chemical products, ferrous metal smelting and calendering processing, metal products and other industries are all lower than 43.0%, and enterprises are lack of confidence.

The overall prosperity level of the manufacturing industry fell down this month, but some industries still maintained expansion. Among them, the PMI and production and operation activity expectation index of agricultural and sideline food processing, food and wine beverage refined tea, medicine, electrical machinery equipment and other industries continued to be in the boom range, market demand maintained growth, and enterprises were more optimistic about the development of the industry.

2、 Non manufacturing business activity index fell

In November, the non manufacturing business activity index was 46.7%, down 2.0 percentage points from the previous month, which was lower than the critical point for two consecutive months, and the prosperity level of non manufacturing industry was lower.

（1） The prosperity level of the service industry fell. In November, some regions were greatly affected, market activity decreased, and the recovery of service industry slowed down. The business activity index fell to 45.1%, down from 1.9 percentage points last month. Among the 21 industries surveyed, 15 are in the contraction range. Among them, the business activity index of contact aggregation industries such as road transportation, air transportation, accommodation, catering, culture, sports and entertainment is lower than 38.0%, and the total business volume of the industry has dropped significantly. Driven by the "double 11" promotion activities, the demand for express delivery increased significantly, and the business activity index of the postal industry rose to 55.4%, which was in a relatively high boom range; Monetary and financial services, insurance and other financial industries were all higher than 57.0%, and the total business volume grew rapidly, providing effective support for the development of the real economy. From the perspective of market expectation, the expected index of business activities is 53.1%, of which the expected index of business activities of wholesale, railway transportation, post, telecommunication, radio, television and satellite transmission services, Internet software and information technology services, monetary and financial services and other industries are in a relatively high boom range, and enterprises maintain confidence in the recovery and development of the industry.

（2） The construction industry continues to be in a high boom zone. The business activity index of the construction industry was 55.4%, which was in a relatively high boom for six consecutive months, and the construction industry generally maintained a rapid growth. Among them, the business activity index of civil engineering construction industry was 62.3%, 1.5 percentage points higher than the previous month, and the construction progress of enterprises was accelerated. From the perspective of market expectations, the expected index of business activities is 59.6%, which is in a relatively high boom range, and enterprises are generally optimistic about the development of the industry.

3、 The composite PMI output index fell

In November, the comprehensive PMI output index was 47.1%, 1.9 percentage points lower than that of the previous month, which was in the contraction range for two consecutive months, indicating that the overall production and operation activities of Chinese enterprises continued to slow down. The manufacturing production index and non manufacturing business activity index which constitute the composite PMI output index are 47.8% and 46.7% respectively.