Speculation&Nbsp; Surprise Rise Of Cotton Price Before The Festival

One week before the Spring Festival, Cotton market The market is unexpectedly strong.

On the 24th, the price of cotton futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) closed at the highest level in nearly 150 years. Affected by this, the domestic market of Zheng Mian has been strong for several consecutive days. Despite the pressure of callback on the 25th, Zheng Mian's 1109 contract still closed at 31675 yuan, breaking the 30000 yuan mark again. In the spot market, China's cotton price index (328) was 28205 yuan/ton, 417 yuan/ton higher than the average price of the previous week.

According to the experience of previous years, as the Spring Festival is approaching, the price of commodities such as cotton will generally fall to the bottom due to the shutdown of downstream enterprises during holidays. But this year, it has been unusually high. What happened to the market?

Dong Shuangwei, a senior analyst of Pioneer Futures Agricultural Products, told the reporter that it was obvious that the rise of cotton futures in the domestic market was caused by the involvement of the international market, but the spot supply of cotton in the domestic market was still sufficient at this stage, so it can be said that speculation played a major role in this rise.

According to the latest report of the U.S. Department of Agriculture, as of January, the U.S Export cotton Only about 10% remains. Other major export countries, such as India, kept their exports unchanged. Affected by the bad weather, Australia and Uzbekistan also have little cotton available for export, and the supply of cotton in the international market will continue to be tight in the future.

"American cotton has almost sold out its stock at the end of July futures Even for cotton that has not been sown in April 2012, the gap is obvious, and there is no resistance to price rise. "Dong Shuangwei judges.

But the domestic situation is quite different. Dong Shuangwei further analyzed that although the market generally expected that China had a large cotton gap, it was at least in May and June. So far, there was no problem with the domestic cotton supply.

"At present, Xinjiang's cotton is moving out of Xinjiang very quickly, which is in the peak supply season. In terms of imported cotton, last December's arrival in Hong Kong was 460000 tons, which is a very high level. It is expected that the monthly import volume from January to March this year will also remain at a high level of more than 300000 tons. If there is no support from the spot, the rise of this round of futures is likely to be caused by 'speculation' factors."

Dong Shuangwei said that as far as he knew, although many middlemen reported high cotton prices, the actual turnover was very small because textile enterprises' replenishment of inventory had ended in stages. Judging from this, the rise at this time was obviously inappropriate.

Wang Danwen, vice president of Jiangsu Suhao Economic and Trade Co., Ltd., also said that this year's raw material market was particularly abnormal

In anticipation of a new "bull market" in cotton after the Spring Festival, Wang Danwen told reporters that the company would start stocking up immediately after the Spring Festival.

Dong Shuangwei pointed out that it was because of the above "pre inflation" mentality that many suppliers began to "gamble" years ago. As for how crazy the cotton market will be after the Spring Festival, he believes that the government should take reasonable control and guidance.

Hu Min, director of the clothing department of the China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Textiles, also reminded export enterprises that due to inertia, the inflation pressure in the first half of the year was still high, and export enterprises should be prepared, and the future export pressure may be more internal than external.