Global Cotton Stocks Have Great Difficulty In Raising Cotton Prices.

Review of futures market

According to the policy of 2011 and 2012, the quota policy of purchasing and storing and importing cotton was mostly promulgated in March. This year's impact on the two sessions was low, and it was low in March. There was no information in 2013. The delay in policy has made the domestic cotton prices fluctuate around 20200 in recent years. Spin The trend of the industry will determine the direction of cotton price operation in the later stage.

　 Two. Domestic market dynamics

1, there is a decreasing trend of planting area.

According to the state cotton (20260, -100.00, -0.49%) the market surveillance system again launched an investigation on the nationwide cotton planting area intention in mid March. The intention of planting cotton in China is 72 million 644 thousand mu, a decrease of 2 million 187 thousand mu compared with the same period, a decrease of 2.9%. The intended area of cotton planting in the the Yellow River River Basin was 22 million 192 thousand mu, a decrease of 9.3% compared to the same period last year. The cotton planting area in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River was 16 million 827 thousand mu, down 5.4% from the same period last year; the intention area for planting cotton in the northwest inland area was 33 million 167 thousand mu, an increase of 2.3% over the same period last year, among which, the intention of planting cotton in Xinjiang increased significantly, with an increase of 3.3 percentage points.

Although the state has issued a policy of collecting and storing for two consecutive years to ensure farmers' cotton planting income, but because the lowest grain price is rising, the overall cotton price ratio is decreasing, and the yield of cotton seed is low. Therefore, the intention of planting in the Yangtze River and the the Yellow River Valley has dropped particularly. In addition, in 2011 and March 2012, the state issued a temporary purchase and storage policy. This year's policy has not yet been released, and it has also affected the enthusiasm of cotton growers.

2. Textiles clothing Export recovery is hard to maintain

March and April is the peak season for textile and clothing exports. From the perspective of enterprises, the increase in orders after the Spring Festival is more obvious. Textile and clothing exports are showing signs of recovery. According to the General Administration of customs statistics, in February, China's textile and clothing exports amounted to 16 billion 480 million US dollars, up 69.7% over the same period last year. In 1-2 months, China's textile and apparel exports totaled 41 billion 170 million US dollars, up 31.8% over the same period last year, exceeding the market expectations. But whether this situation can be maintained or not will make China. Textile industry It is very difficult to get out of the trough. The turnover of textile and clothing products from the twenty-third China Fair in early March was 15.68% lower than the previous one, indicating that the export situation of textile and clothing is grim.

3. Sustainability of the policy of relocating and storing

Cotton storage and storage in 2012/13 ended this month. As of March 29th, the total volume of cotton temporary storage and storage in 2012 reached 6506410 tons. As of March 29th, cotton reserves totaled 3357941.1 tons, with a turnover of 1008416 tons. After the end of the month, the domestic cotton price will not be supported, or it will face the risk of decline.

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4. Import quotas will be issued one after another.

In March, the bonded area's inventory was high, similar to that of the same period last year. It is expected that the current inventory of cotton stocks and the inventory of the same period last year are between 30-40 tons. In March, when the output of port cotton is less than the quantity, the stock will further increase. The situation of cotton warehouse in the bonded areas of Qingdao, Zhangjiagang and Shanghai will become more and more obvious. Judging from recent understanding, some enterprises have already received quotas. If the quota continues to be issued in April, it will help lower the cost of the downstream, but will also impact domestic cotton prices. Compared with the same period last year, under the circumstances of the withdrawal of the stock market at the end of the month and the issuance of quotas, the domestic market will have greater pressure later.

5, narrowing the price gap between inside and outside

Domestic and foreign cotton futures prices have risen, and the difference between inside and outside cotton prices has narrowed rapidly. On the 27 day, the international cotton index (M), which represents the average price of the Chinese main port on the import cotton, is calculated by sliding tax. The cost of import is 16106 yuan / ton, while the Chinese cotton price index CCINDEX328 is 19371 yuan / ton, and the price difference has narrowed to 3265 yuan / ton.

　 Three, international market dynamics

1, according to the global cotton supply and demand forecast of the US Department of agriculture (USDA) in March, the current global cotton initial inventory of 15 million 19 thousand tons, compared with the February forecast of 11 thousand tons; the global output of 26 million 98 thousand tons, increased by 199 thousand tons; consumption accumulated 23 million 321 thousand tons, increased by 190 thousand tons; import and export trade volume to 911-913 million tons, increased by 31-33 million tons; the end of the world 17 million 797 thousand tons of storage, reduction of 26 thousand tons, inventory consumption than 26 thousand. The data readjustment in China and the United States is as follows: China's output is expected to be 7 million 620 thousand tons this year, up by 217 thousand tons, consumption of 7 million 838 thousand tons, increase by 10.9, import volume of 3 million 266 thousand tons, increase of 218 thousand tons, end of the stock 9 million 603 thousand tons, increase of 327 thousand tons, inventory consumption of 122.36%, the output of the United States 3 million 704 thousand tons, unchanged, the US cotton consumption 740 thousand tons, the same volume, the export volume of 19 tons, the increase of 3 million 704 thousand tons, the end of the stock of tons of tons, the reduction of tonnes. Inventory consumption is 26%.

2, according to the latest 2013/14 released by the US Department of agriculture (USDA). Cotton planting The area survey is expected to lead to a 10 million 26 thousand acre cotton planting area in the new year, a decrease of 18.6% over the previous year, up 26 thousand acres in February. Among them, 9 million 820 thousand hectares of upland cotton are expected to decrease by 18.7% compared with the same period last year. Pima cotton has an area of 206 thousand acres, a decrease of 13.6% over the same period last year. The central and Southern cotton region has the largest reduction. It is estimated that the area is 1 million 260 thousand acres, a decrease of 37.9% compared with the same period last year, and the southwest cotton area is the smallest. It is estimated to be 5 million 700 thousand acres, a decrease of 17.5% over the same period last year. The largest cotton area in Dezhou is 5 million 500 thousand acres, a decrease of 16% compared to the previous year. The second cotton area, Georgia, has an area of 1 million 300 thousand acres, an increase of 0.8%.