US Cotton Continued To Fall And Hit A Five Year Low.

As the USDA raised the end of the global cotton inventory, the new cotton market began to increase, the market expected this week's exports will fall, and the initiative sales weakened to make the ICE cotton fall again. The main contract on Wednesday night was the lowest in March to 60.08 cents / pound, and it ended down 1.19 cents to 60.34 cents / pound, the lowest closing since September 2009.

The market will continue to flow to the March contract. It is expected that the new cotton market will be on the market in the US and India.

The pressure of supply and sales will gradually appear, and the international cotton price will be dragged down. The March contract will continue to challenge the strong support position of 60 cents / pound, and the possibility of breaking the position will fall.

Overnight

Low opening and low walking, the main contract in March, the mid day newspaper closed below the short-term average, began to challenge the strong support position of 60 cents / pound integer, the average system maintained a good fall in the arrangement, the KD and MACD index continued to fall short, MACD index green column began to grow, cotton price weakened and heavy fall potential, ICE phase cotton kept empty, no change of thought, continue to hold empty list, such as March contract 60 cents / pound support position fall, the downstream target will be 55 cents / pound line.

Although Zheng cotton rebounded along with the international cotton price on Wednesday, it did not get the matching of the spot market. As the end of the US cotton and India cotton were coming to port, the domestic textile enterprises slowed down the pace of replenishment. Shandong Wei Qiao lowered the purchase price of the real estate cotton to 13800 yuan / ton, while the price of the lint sale in Xinjiang also weakened, and the price of the downstream cotton yarn and gray cloth remained weak. That is, the terminal market did not support the rise of cotton prices. Therefore, the idea of keeping the short term of zhengmian unchanged and keeping the 1505 contract blank was still a challenge. It is expected to challenge the strong support position of 13000 yuan / ton integer.

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According to the sources, Yangzi Petrochemical has stopped the remaining 350 thousand tons of PTA installations in November 9th after its 700 thousand ton PTA plant was stopped and repaired at the end of October.

So far, Yangzi Petrochemical has not produced any PTA products.

The parking will provide further impetus for the current PTA and spot picking up pattern.

Up to now, the total capacity of PTA is 42 million tons / year, if it is fully open, it is obviously an excess; but in fact, the start-up load is basically maintained at around 7 percent, of which the capacity in September is about 6.5, and in October it rebounded slightly between 7-7.5.

Although the PTA output of Yangzi Petrochemical Company is not very high at present, and the upcoming parking is another 350 thousand tons of small line, but after all, it is the originator of PTA products, and it belongs to the leading position of the leading company. Its influence in the industry should not be underestimated; especially once the car is stopped, the PTA production equivalent to Yangzi will stop on the whole line and will be purchased in the market to meet the performance requirements of the downstream contract customers.

Because of the high cost of raw materials this year, the loss of PTA production enterprises has increased, so that large state-owned enterprises such as Yangzi Petrochemical have been forced to stop, not to mention small and medium-sized private enterprises. This shows the serious situation facing the PTA production enterprises. In order to change the current deficit situation, we can only reduce production capacity, limit production and protect prices, so as to save themselves.

Due to the late spring festival next year, the production and marketing of downstream polyester factories can still be maintained at around 8 per cent, and the unit price of raw materials is low. Therefore, it is expected that there will be no large area parking in polyester factories before the end of December.

PTA products inventory (including upstream and downstream stocks, social inventory) within 10 days, in addition to individual manufacturers, the whole is at a low level, the raw materials of pre polyester plant users basically keep until mid November, and then will usher in a certain degree of stocking procurement market.

And the sale of polyester factories downstream will further stimulate the purchasing enthusiasm of products such as PTA and MEG.

Close to the year, due to the beauty of year-end statements and the objective needs of improving performance, many enterprises only save themselves by reducing load, reducing production and protecting prices.

Once the PTA mainstream suppliers take the opportunity to reduce production in order to consider their own interests, and at the same time, the futures 1501 contract bears the spot for the delivery, then PTA will rise in the current and current price linkage. At that time, if PTA suppliers control the progress of delivery, especially with the weather gradually entering the winter, the increase of uncertain factors such as fog and snow will have a direct negative impact on the warehousing delivery of the short end, thereby contributing to the rising trend of PTA futures.