Affected By Oversupply, ICE Cotton Futures Prices Fell Sharply.

ICE cotton futures fell on Wednesday, the most active March contract fell 1.19 cents, closing at 60.34 cents, the lowest intraday to 60.08 cents, after Tuesday rebounded sharp decline, Wednesday chose to continue downward, the market fundamentals of the negative situation to suppress cotton cotton prices fell, the monthly report of the United States Department of Agriculture raised the US cotton production forecast, and demand has not increased, the US cotton year-end inventory forecast was raised.

Global cotton year-end inventory forecast was raised by a record high of 107 million 360 thousand packets. China's demand shrank. Oversupply in the world is expected to show a weak future in the market. ICE cotton prices rebounded poorly. On Wednesday, prices fell below 61 U.S. branching positions.

　　 Zheng cotton The futures contract for 1505 months opened up on Wednesday, rising 75 yuan, closing at 13315 yuan, closing about 229 thousand hands and holding about 411 thousand hands. On the spot side, China cotton price index 3128B cotton newspaper 14802 points, rose 1 points, spot prices remained stable, but the transaction was flat, textile enterprises' purchase intention decreased, and the decline of Zheng cotton futures prices had a certain negative impact on the spot market.

　　 Xinjiang In the end of the takeover, mainland acquisitions were slow. Cotton enterprises The enthusiasm of the acquisition and cotton farmers to sell is not high. The cotton association reminds cotton farmers that the subsidy policy in the mainland is clear. Cotton farmers can rest assured that they sell cotton to qualified purchasing companies and retain relevant notes for the purpose of receiving subsidies. The supply of domestic market is increasing gradually. The current situation of cotton supply exceeds demand is difficult to change. Cotton market will continue to maintain a short trend. Under the pressure of overnight cotton down, Zheng cotton futures is expected to fall slightly.

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According to the sources, Yangzi Petrochemical has stopped the remaining 350 thousand tons of PTA installations in November 9th after its 700 thousand ton PTA plant was stopped and repaired at the end of October. So far, Yangzi Petrochemical has not produced any PTA products. The parking will provide further impetus for the current PTA and spot picking up pattern.

Up to now, the total capacity of PTA is 42 million tons / year, if it is fully open, it is obviously an excess; but in fact, the start-up load is basically maintained at around 7 percent, of which the capacity in September is about 6.5, and in October it rebounded slightly between 7-7.5.

Although the PTA output of Yangzi Petrochemical Company is not very high at present, and the upcoming parking is another 350 thousand tons of small line, but after all, it is the originator of PTA products, and it belongs to the leading position of the leading company. Its influence in the industry should not be underestimated; especially once the car is stopped, the PTA production equivalent to Yangzi will stop on the whole line and will be purchased in the market to meet the performance requirements of the downstream contract customers.

Because of the high cost of raw materials this year, the loss of PTA production enterprises has increased, so that large state-owned enterprises such as Yangzi Petrochemical have been forced to stop, not to mention small and medium-sized private enterprises. This shows the serious situation facing the PTA production enterprises. In order to change the current deficit situation, we can only reduce production capacity, limit production and protect prices, so as to save themselves.

Due to the late spring festival next year, the production and marketing of downstream polyester factories can still be maintained at around 8 per cent, and the unit price of raw materials is low. Therefore, it is expected that there will be no large area parking in polyester factories before the end of December.

PTA products inventory (including upstream and downstream stocks, social inventory) within 10 days, in addition to individual manufacturers, the whole is at a low level, the raw materials of pre polyester plant users basically keep until mid November, and then will usher in a certain degree of stocking procurement market. And the sale of polyester factories downstream will further stimulate the purchasing enthusiasm of products such as PTA and MEG.

Close to the year, due to the beauty of year-end statements and the objective needs of improving performance, many enterprises only save themselves by reducing load, reducing production and protecting prices. Once the PTA mainstream suppliers take the opportunity to reduce production in order to consider their own interests, and at the same time, the futures 1501 contract bears the spot for the delivery, then PTA will rise in the current and current price linkage. At that time, if PTA suppliers control the progress of delivery, especially with the weather gradually entering the winter, the increase of uncertain factors such as fog and snow will have a direct negative impact on the warehousing delivery of the short end, thereby contributing to the rising trend of PTA futures.