The Consumption Of Mother And Baby Chain Market Is Gradually Showing High Quality

Japan's economic development and population structure changes have a great impact on the changes of retail formats and consumer preferences, which is of great significance for China's consumer industry. Since the 60s, Japan's economy has experienced four cycles of take-off, shift, stagflation and recovery. The number of births declined steadily after 1970s. The total population peaked in the 2000's, and began to show significant negative growth in 2009, and the family structure also became smaller. In this process, the consumer preference turns to the popular, independent and concise shopping experience, and the maternal and infant chain stores emerge as the times require, and maintain a relatively stable growth rate under the background of low fertility.

From nishimatsuya to explore the leading development of mother and baby in Japan: nishimatsuya was founded in 1956, listed in 1999, and became the largest chain brand of mother and baby in Japan in 2006. So far, its revenue CAGR has reached 9.6%, and the return on investment has reached 253%. Through the resumption of Nishiyama, we summarize two important nodes: ① Japan's birth rate continued to decline from 1997 to 2007, but Nishiyama skillfully located its location and expanded rapidly, focusing on cost performance to attract customers, and achieved adverse growth. During this period, saimatsuya surpassed akkawa to become No.1 of Japanese mother and baby chain. During this period, the stock price yield was more than 3 times. ② In 2011, faced with the downturn brought about by the financial crisis in 2008, the market and birth rate continued to decline. The company began to strive for changes. Through expanding the size of customers, launching private brands and other measures, the company steadily increased and the stock price stabilized.

In terms of per capita GDP, birth rate and population structure, China is now in the 1970s-1980s economic stage of Japan, with huge regional differences. From the perspective of the maternal and infant market, although the fertility rate has decreased, the market scale is still growing steadily. According to mob data, the size of China's maternal and infant market will reach about 3 trillion yuan in 2018. With the development of e-commerce new retail and the change of major consumer groups, the consumption intention and demand for refined maternal and infant products have increased. It is estimated that the industry scale will exceed 7 trillion yuan by 2024.

Compared with China's maternal and infant chain leader, the scale of child king is leading and the advantage of data is prominent; Baby room operation efficiency is high, merger and acquisition accelerate the expansion of territory. Specifically,

① Positioning: Baby King is a big store model, targeting expectant mothers and 0-14-year-old children, while baby room is mainly aimed at pre pregnancy and 0-6-year-old infant families;

② Channel: child king covers 20 provinces and cities in China, and baby room deeply cultivates in East China;

③ Turf efficiency and profitability: Baby Friendly room has higher turf efficiency, and it is better at gross profit rate and roe level.

Risk tips: global economic risk, consumer demand slowdown; Financial market systemic risk; Uncertainty of epidemic situation; The growth rate of new born population slows down; Shop expansion is not as expected; Product quality inspection crisis.