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One Word: The Cotton Arbitrage Window Opens &Nbsp Again; It Is Suggested That The Best Way To Lose Weight Before The Year Is High.

2011/1/27 10:21:00 82

Zheng cotton

Last Friday, under the impetus of the US cotton company, we broke through 30000 important pressure levels. This Monday, driven by the short selling order, rose to a maximum of 32000 yuan / ton after two consecutive days at 31000 yuan / ton.

Before the Spring Festival, the fluctuation was obviously enlarged, which resulted in better arbitrage opportunities.

After December, the trend of Zheng cotton has tended to be dull, and the fluctuation within days has been greatly reduced. According to past practice, the market was relatively dull before the year. On the one hand, the output has already been determined. On the other hand, the demand for textile off-season is relatively stable, and the external stimulus is small.

Cotton price

There is little volatility.

The cotton trend in late January has always been consistent with this judgement. During this period, the cotton price is mainly digested, and there are two notable characteristics: first, the cotton price itself tends to be stable. During the period, the spot price has been stabilized at the interval of 27000 to 28000, and the high cotton price has been gradually accepted by the industrial chain. The foundation of the Khmer price has been more stable than before. Two, the price system of the cotton market has been amended, mainly in three markets: spot market, futures market, and punishment matching market. Generally speaking, when the market is developing rapidly, due to the differences between the operation mechanism and participants in the three markets,

market

The price gap will deviate from the normal range, resulting in arbitrage opportunities. For example, when the cotton price rose during the first half of November, there was a price of about 2000 yuan higher than the futures price in the near future.

After the market has stabilized, the arbitrage opportunities will disappear after the market price has been fully adjusted. By mid December, the matching price will be basically the same as that of the futures contracts in the same period. The CF1009 contract will raise the spot price by about 1000, which is a normal price structure, and arbitrage space basically does not exist.

Zheng cotton rose sharply before the Spring Festival, breaking the relatively stable price situation. The arbitrage window was opened again at the end of the year.

Most of the main participants in the cotton market have left the market since the Spring Festival. The cotton market has been slack. When the cotton market was pulled up on Monday, the spot market also responded sharply, but the quotation was generally disordered. Taking East China as an example, the quotations above 28500 yuan / ton to 30000 yuan / ton existed. The purpose of this quotation is to test the acceptance level of the textile mill, and there is not much practical significance.

In the absence of the main players, the guiding significance of futures prices is not good. The futures market has led the development of the market. Because of the inconsistent rhythm of futures and spot prices, the arbitrage window will open. On the 25 day, the 4 lint of Shandong Ji'nan area will reach 27600 to 27800 yuan / ton in the factory price, and the average price of CF1105 will be above 31000 points on the same day.

Before the Spring Festival, Zheng cotton rose again to a large extent, which is expected to be released in advance. There is almost a consensus in the market for tight supply next year.

From the perspective of the author's contact, although the yarn inventory level of textile mills is relatively high, the inventory problem is not very worried because of the general demand for next year's demand.

On the supply side, cotton merchants' mentality fluctuated this year. Whether cotton prices rose wildly in October or the slump in mid 11, cotton merchants did not have a stable view of cotton prices. Until the cotton prices stabilized in December, cotton merchants' mentality began to improve. After more than two months' digestion of high cotton prices, the cotton traders are optimistic about the outlook for the future.

When both buyers and sellers are optimistic about the market situation, futures prices respond ahead of the Spring Festival.

Fully supported by expectations, the market is not stable. Now the cotton market has no substantive good follow up. Cotton will continue to rise at the end of the year.

The National Cotton Association of the United States will publish the report of the US cotton planting area this year during the Chinese New Year holiday. In the context of the 160 cent price of the US cotton, the planting area will increase substantially.

We suggest that the best way to lose weight before the year is to lose more pounds and shift more energy to arbitrage.